***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 17.01.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 11.02.2019.-17.02.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 75 25 100 6.8 5.0 5.2 -0.9 42.8 46.7 3.7 5.8 7.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 53 47 0 100 2.4 4.0 5.1 -1.0 41.5 45.5 2.9 5.1 7.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 75 25 100 6.7 4.8 5.6 -0.9 42.5 46.2 3.4 5.7 7.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 0.1 -2.2 2.2 -1.4 38.9 42.6 -3.0 -0.8 1.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 6.7 4.7 3.6 -1.0 41.5 45.1 3.5 5.7 7.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 53 47 0 100 2.9 5.1 3.1 -0.2 48.3 50.2 3.3 5.3 7.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 53 47 0 100 2.0 3.7 5.2 -0.9 42.5 46.5 2.4 4.7 6.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 52 48 0 100 -4.4 -3.0 3.1 -0.8 42.8 46.0 -4.1 -2.3 -0.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 51 49 0 100 3.2 4.9 4.5 -0.9 42.4 45.8 3.6 5.9 8.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 52 48 0 100 3.2 4.8 3.6 -1.0 42.1 45.6 3.6 5.8 7.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 7.0 5.1 3.8 -0.8 43.0 46.3 3.8 6.0 8.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 51 49 0 100 3.1 4.9 3.8 -0.6 44.7 47.6 3.5 5.6 7.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 75 25 100 7.1 5.8 3.4 -0.3 47.1 49.6 4.0 6.1 8.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 52 48 0 100 3.2 4.8 4.8 -1.1 41.7 45.2 3.6 6.0 8.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 6.2 3.8 2.8 -1.4 38.8 42.3 3.0 5.2 7.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 75 25 100 7.5 5.8 3.5 -0.7 44.4 47.4 4.4 6.5 8.6 30 Nis 06700G01 56 44 0 100 2.0 3.6 5.1 -1.0 41.1 45.0 2.6 4.7 6.7 30 Palic 37000G16 53 47 0 100 2.8 4.4 3.7 -1.0 42.0 45.4 3.3 5.4 7.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 51 49 0 100 2.4 3.9 5.3 -1.0 41.4 45.3 2.8 5.1 7.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 75 25 100 3.0 1.3 1.6 -0.9 41.9 45.6 0.4 2.2 3.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 51 49 0 100 3.1 4.8 5.0 -0.9 42.5 46.0 3.5 5.8 8.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 53 47 0 100 2.4 3.8 5.1 -1.2 39.7 43.9 2.9 5.2 7.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 6.2 4.1 5.6 -1.0 41.9 45.6 2.9 5.2 7.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 52 48 0 100 3.1 4.9 4.8 -1.0 42.3 45.7 3.6 5.9 8.2 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 6.0 4.0 3.4 -1.1 41.1 45.1 2.9 5.1 7.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 6.9 5.9 3.4 -0.1 49.0 51.1 4.0 6.1 7.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 6.5 4.7 4.6 -0.8 42.9 46.7 3.4 5.6 7.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 6.6 4.2 2.6 -1.3 39.6 43.2 3.3 5.7 7.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 52 48 0 100 -0.8 0.7 2.9 -1.0 41.6 45.2 -0.4 1.8 3.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 51 49 0 100 2.3 3.9 5.1 -1.0 42.0 46.1 2.7 4.9 7.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------