***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 17.01.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 21.01.2019.-17.02.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 52 48 0 100 3.0 3.4 3.7 -1.2 34.5 39.5 3.3 4.9 6.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 57 43 0 100 2.6 2.6 3.4 -1.8 28.3 35.1 3.1 4.7 6.1 30 Becej 27400G00 52 48 0 100 3.7 4.0 4.0 -1.4 32.9 38.3 4.0 5.6 7.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 59 41 0 100 -2.2 -1.9 0.6 -1.6 31.1 35.1 -1.7 -0.3 1.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 55 45 0 100 3.6 4.2 2.4 -1.2 35.4 39.3 4.0 5.5 6.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 5.4 5.0 2.3 0.1 51.8 51.9 3.5 4.8 6.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 53 47 0 100 2.3 2.3 3.5 -1.6 30.0 36.7 2.6 4.2 5.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 54 46 0 100 -2.8 -2.3 1.9 -0.9 37.9 41.5 -2.6 -1.5 -0.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 55 45 0 100 4.1 4.6 3.2 -1.2 34.4 38.9 4.5 6.0 7.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 55 45 0 100 3.8 4.4 2.4 -1.2 35.0 39.3 4.2 5.7 7.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 53 47 0 100 3.9 4.7 2.7 -0.9 38.0 41.5 4.2 5.8 7.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 51 49 0 100 4.0 5.0 2.7 -0.6 42.4 45.0 4.2 5.6 7.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 75 25 100 6.3 5.5 2.9 -0.2 47.8 49.1 4.3 5.7 7.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 59 41 0 100 4.0 4.2 3.2 -1.7 29.8 35.7 4.6 6.2 7.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 56 44 0 100 3.0 3.1 1.7 -1.6 30.5 34.4 3.4 4.9 6.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 51 49 0 100 4.4 5.5 2.6 -0.5 43.2 45.5 4.6 6.1 7.5 30 Nis 06700G01 61 39 0 100 2.3 2.2 3.2 -1.9 26.4 33.3 2.9 4.3 5.6 30 Palic 37000G16 58 42 0 100 3.1 3.6 2.2 -1.2 34.1 38.9 3.5 4.7 5.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 56 44 0 100 2.7 2.7 3.6 -1.8 28.7 35.2 3.2 4.8 6.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 56 44 0 100 0.6 1.3 0.9 -0.8 38.4 42.2 0.9 2.2 3.4 29 Sjenica 27900G10 53 47 0 100 3.9 4.4 3.8 -1.2 34.6 39.2 4.2 5.8 7.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 65 35 0 100 2.6 2.5 3.3 -2.0 25.0 32.0 3.4 5.0 6.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 54 46 0 100 3.1 3.1 3.8 -1.6 30.1 36.3 3.4 5.0 6.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 57 43 0 100 4.1 4.4 3.4 -1.4 32.2 37.6 4.5 6.1 7.5 29 Valjevo 28500G11 53 47 0 100 2.9 3.2 2.3 -1.3 33.5 37.9 3.2 4.6 5.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 5.9 5.5 2.6 0.2 52.8 52.8 4.2 5.4 6.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 52 48 0 100 3.3 3.8 3.3 -1.1 35.2 40.0 3.6 5.1 6.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 54 46 0 100 3.7 4.1 1.4 -1.4 33.2 36.9 4.1 5.7 7.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 59 41 0 100 0.5 1.1 1.8 -1.1 35.3 39.8 0.9 2.3 3.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 54 46 0 100 2.6 2.7 3.5 -1.6 30.5 36.8 2.9 4.5 6.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------