***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 17.01.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 21.01.2019.-27.01.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 27 73 100 10.0 13.1 18.0 166.0 81.1 75.0 2.8 5.1 8.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 23 77 100 10.1 13.7 16.4 176.0 82.4 76.8 2.6 4.8 8.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 31 69 100 12.5 17.5 18.8 171.0 82.0 75.7 3.3 6.3 10.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 15 85 100 13.9 18.7 25.7 191.1 85.1 81.3 4.5 7.4 11.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 29 71 100 11.0 12.9 20.0 149.3 77.7 72.7 3.5 6.0 9.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 20 80 100 11.4 13.0 19.9 152.9 78.3 74.6 2.9 5.4 8.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 22 78 100 9.7 13.0 15.5 174.6 82.3 76.7 2.2 4.3 7.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 28 72 100 15.5 17.7 22.3 150.9 77.3 72.5 5.3 8.7 13.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 29 71 100 9.3 11.2 19.4 152.3 78.4 72.8 2.8 5.0 7.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 34 66 100 10.7 11.9 20.0 138.2 74.8 69.3 3.9 6.3 9.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 29 71 100 10.4 11.8 19.8 143.6 76.3 71.3 3.2 5.6 8.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 23 77 100 11.6 13.5 20.8 153.9 78.6 74.4 3.3 6.0 9.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 24 76 100 11.7 12.7 21.2 142.9 76.1 72.5 3.3 5.9 9.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 27 73 100 20.1 24.6 21.6 156.4 79.3 74.1 6.0 10.6 16.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 7 93 100 15.8 27.9 29.7 241.3 89.7 86.8 2.6 5.7 10.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 23 77 100 10.2 11.8 20.8 153.2 78.4 74.3 2.9 5.1 8.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 20 80 100 9.9 13.6 14.9 179.3 83.1 77.5 2.2 4.4 7.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 37 63 100 11.3 12.6 20.0 136.1 74.4 68.9 4.1 6.7 10.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 22 78 100 11.2 14.7 17.4 175.0 82.3 76.7 3.1 5.6 8.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 26 74 100 13.1 16.1 27.6 164.5 79.7 74.4 4.1 7.1 10.9 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 29 71 100 10.3 13.1 19.6 161.7 80.3 74.2 3.0 5.4 8.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 18 82 100 11.2 14.2 16.1 173.0 82.0 76.8 3.0 5.4 8.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 26 74 100 10.3 14.0 18.9 176.1 82.7 77.0 3.0 5.3 8.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 36 64 100 14.6 17.9 19.9 150.5 77.7 72.0 5.0 8.5 13.0 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 25 75 100 13.0 16.9 21.1 165.0 81.1 75.4 3.3 6.3 10.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 11 89 100 10.7 12.9 23.6 168.8 81.4 78.3 2.6 4.8 7.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 24 76 100 12.3 16.3 18.8 167.1 81.4 75.7 3.1 5.9 9.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 15 85 100 10.1 14.3 24.9 198.4 85.2 81.6 2.4 4.6 7.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 33 67 100 19.5 22.2 21.9 143.2 75.9 70.7 6.8 11.3 17.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 25 75 100 10.1 14.3 17.1 175.9 82.5 76.6 2.1 4.4 7.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------