***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 17.01.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 28.01.2019.-03.02.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 37 63 100 6.6 7.5 13.4 136.5 74.4 62.4 1.5 3.2 5.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 33 67 100 6.0 7.2 11.8 147.0 77.0 64.9 1.7 3.2 5.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 6.6 10.5 12.4 130.0 72.6 61.1 2.5 5.0 8.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 35 65 100 13.5 14.5 13.8 132.4 73.3 61.6 4.1 7.4 11.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 38 62 100 13.9 15.1 13.7 131.2 72.9 62.3 4.0 7.5 12.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 8.9 11.0 11.3 110.6 66.1 56.5 3.9 6.8 10.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 4.6 7.8 11.4 142.3 75.9 61.3 1.9 3.5 5.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 14.5 20.7 14.0 121.8 70.0 59.6 5.9 11.0 18.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 7.1 10.0 12.9 119.3 69.3 58.6 2.6 5.2 9.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 9.3 12.6 13.1 117.4 68.6 58.6 3.9 7.2 11.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 8.7 12.2 13.0 124.6 70.9 59.5 3.9 6.9 10.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 7.6 10.6 12.6 117.5 68.4 58.1 2.8 5.7 9.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 35 65 100 13.5 11.7 12.1 111.7 66.5 56.8 3.4 6.7 11.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 8.2 10.9 13.1 114.4 67.5 57.6 3.0 6.1 10.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 34 66 100 11.0 13.0 13.1 142.7 75.9 60.9 2.4 5.0 9.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 7.6 10.0 11.8 115.4 67.7 56.8 3.0 5.7 9.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 33 67 100 6.1 7.5 11.9 150.7 77.8 64.0 1.7 3.2 5.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 8.3 10.3 13.6 113.1 67.0 57.3 4.1 6.8 10.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 33 67 100 6.5 7.6 12.0 143.3 76.1 64.7 1.8 3.4 5.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 38 62 100 11.3 12.6 21.6 136.9 74.1 63.9 3.9 6.7 10.1 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 7.3 10.5 13.1 123.2 70.6 59.1 2.8 5.4 9.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 34 66 100 6.3 7.8 12.2 150.6 77.8 65.4 1.7 3.2 5.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 39 61 100 6.2 6.8 12.1 129.7 72.5 61.6 1.5 3.1 5.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 8.9 11.4 12.7 113.4 67.2 56.9 3.8 6.9 10.9 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 38 62 100 11.2 12.4 15.1 132.2 73.3 62.0 2.8 5.6 9.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 8.3 12.0 13.2 123.0 70.5 61.4 3.3 6.4 10.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 37 63 100 8.0 8.5 13.7 129.8 72.6 61.1 2.4 4.4 7.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 36 64 100 10.4 11.3 12.6 133.0 73.3 60.6 2.6 5.2 8.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 12.6 16.5 15.6 118.8 68.9 58.8 6.3 10.3 15.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 40 60 100 5.9 7.1 11.8 140.3 75.4 62.9 1.7 3.2 5.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------