***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 17.01.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 21.01.2019.-17.02.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 24 76 100 39.1 45.6 57.6 140.7 80.3 73.9 18.2 25.8 34.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 24 76 100 37.4 46.4 53.3 150.6 82.9 74.8 17.0 24.3 32.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 26 74 100 51.9 60.5 57.2 141.0 80.0 74.2 24.6 34.5 46.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 18 82 100 60.3 75.3 70.9 156.0 84.8 79.2 28.2 39.2 51.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 26 74 100 57.0 64.9 62.5 137.2 79.2 73.9 27.9 38.7 50.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 30 70 100 48.1 53.5 57.7 130.9 76.7 70.5 22.6 32.4 43.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 26 74 100 34.5 42.3 51.6 148.9 82.4 73.8 16.4 23.0 30.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 32 68 100 75.4 81.3 65.2 129.5 75.7 70.4 44.1 56.6 70.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 27 73 100 45.7 49.6 61.1 131.7 76.8 72.1 23.1 31.5 41.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 34 66 100 54.8 58.1 62.1 125.1 73.7 69.1 30.0 40.0 51.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 26 74 100 51.1 55.9 59.9 131.8 77.0 71.7 23.8 33.8 45.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 30 70 100 51.9 58.7 60.1 131.2 76.6 71.2 19.4 30.8 45.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 28 72 100 55.0 58.4 60.8 127.2 75.1 69.6 26.6 37.1 49.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 23 77 100 65.3 69.1 65.8 131.3 76.7 71.5 35.8 46.7 58.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 16 84 100 58.3 91.4 76.3 181.2 88.4 83.1 16.5 29.0 45.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 26 74 100 46.7 52.3 59.6 133.5 77.7 72.0 20.5 29.9 40.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 20 80 100 36.9 44.9 51.9 153.0 83.5 74.5 17.9 24.7 32.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 37 63 100 49.4 51.4 63.4 121.5 72.0 67.4 27.9 36.7 46.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 24 76 100 41.5 50.1 55.0 149.0 82.6 74.9 20.7 28.3 36.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 34 66 100 51.4 58.2 87.0 133.7 77.2 71.3 26.3 36.3 47.5 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 25 75 100 49.0 54.8 60.5 136.9 78.8 73.9 25.1 33.9 43.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 25 75 100 37.8 47.1 55.2 153.2 83.6 74.5 18.5 25.6 33.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 24 76 100 40.5 47.8 57.9 144.0 81.2 74.4 19.6 27.1 35.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 30 70 100 57.7 61.2 61.1 128.1 74.9 70.2 32.2 42.2 53.3 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 20 80 100 56.9 66.9 66.5 141.8 81.3 75.3 25.1 36.1 48.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 27 73 100 45.5 53.5 64.8 137.4 79.5 73.3 19.6 29.0 40.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 25 75 100 47.9 55.7 60.0 138.5 79.8 73.2 21.8 31.0 42.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 20 80 100 49.7 68.5 67.7 160.3 84.7 79.1 15.7 26.3 40.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 40 60 100 75.4 80.5 69.1 123.7 73.1 68.1 45.7 58.6 72.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 28 72 100 37.4 46.1 54.2 147.5 82.0 74.4 17.7 25.1 33.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------