***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 18.01.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 22.01.2018.-18.02.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 -1.8 -1.8 -2.4 0.5 57.4 55.8 -3.7 -2.4 -1.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 -2.6 -2.1 -1.9 0.9 62.6 60.0 -4.4 -3.1 -1.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 -0.3 0.0 -2.1 0.8 60.8 58.8 -1.9 -0.7 0.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 -5.9 -6.2 -5.5 0.3 54.1 53.2 -7.8 -6.5 -5.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 -2.7 -2.7 -4.7 0.5 56.7 55.3 -4.3 -3.1 -2.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 53 47 0 100 -5.4 -4.3 -7.6 -0.2 46.9 47.4 -5.2 -4.1 -3.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 81 19 100 -2.4 -1.9 -1.9 0.9 61.8 59.4 -4.1 -2.8 -1.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 -7.9 -8.0 -6.6 0.4 55.6 54.2 -9.4 -8.3 -7.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 -1.8 -1.8 -4.3 0.6 58.4 56.8 -3.4 -2.3 -1.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 -2.2 -2.3 -6.0 0.4 55.6 54.4 -3.7 -2.6 -1.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 -2.4 -2.6 -5.6 0.4 55.7 54.5 -4.0 -2.9 -1.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 -3.3 -3.4 -6.1 0.4 55.5 54.4 -4.8 -3.7 -2.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 51 49 0 100 -4.5 -3.3 -6.7 -0.2 47.6 48.6 -4.3 -3.2 -2.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 32 68 100 -0.7 -1.2 -4.1 0.9 62.7 59.9 -3.0 -2.0 -1.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 -2.2 -2.5 -4.5 0.1 51.9 52.0 -3.8 -2.6 -1.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 51 49 0 100 -3.5 -2.2 -6.4 0.0 50.4 50.5 -3.3 -2.2 -1.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 81 19 100 -2.6 -1.9 -1.7 1.1 64.9 61.9 -4.2 -3.0 -1.8 30 Palic 37000G16 53 47 0 100 -5.8 -4.1 -6.3 0.5 57.3 55.5 -5.6 -4.6 -3.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 -2.4 -1.9 -2.0 0.9 63.0 60.5 -4.2 -2.9 -1.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 55 45 0 100 -9.4 -7.4 -7.5 0.4 55.5 53.7 -9.1 -7.8 -6.6 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 -2.1 -2.0 -3.0 0.7 58.8 57.2 -3.7 -2.6 -1.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 42 58 100 -1.8 -1.9 -1.8 1.1 65.9 62.8 -4.4 -3.1 -1.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 38 62 100 -1.7 -2.0 -2.2 1.0 64.5 61.9 -4.1 -2.9 -1.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 54 46 0 100 -4.2 -2.3 -4.4 0.8 60.4 58.4 -4.0 -2.9 -1.9 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 -2.4 -2.6 -3.9 0.3 53.5 52.8 -4.0 -2.8 -1.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 53 47 0 100 -4.3 -3.0 -6.6 0.1 51.0 50.7 -4.1 -3.1 -2.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 -2.0 -2.2 -3.0 0.4 55.2 54.1 -4.0 -2.6 -1.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 -3.4 -3.7 -5.4 0.1 51.5 51.4 -5.0 -3.8 -2.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 55 45 0 100 -6.6 -4.9 -7.0 0.4 55.6 54.1 -6.4 -5.2 -4.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 -2.1 -1.7 -1.9 0.8 61.7 59.3 -3.9 -2.6 -1.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------