***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 18.01.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 29.01.2018.-04.02.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 84 16 100 4.6 5.9 5.9 1.6 65.7 62.4 1.9 4.0 6.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 87 13 100 4.8 6.5 6.4 2.0 68.6 65.5 2.4 4.3 6.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 84 16 100 5.9 7.2 6.4 1.8 66.1 62.7 3.3 5.3 7.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 81 19 100 -0.3 0.1 2.4 1.0 59.6 56.4 -2.8 -0.9 0.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 5.5 6.1 3.9 1.2 61.5 58.2 2.9 4.8 6.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 54 46 0 100 1.8 4.6 2.2 0.5 55.1 53.4 2.2 4.0 5.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 87 13 100 4.4 6.2 6.3 2.0 68.7 65.6 1.9 3.9 5.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 -0.9 -0.4 3.4 1.2 62.5 59.1 -3.3 -1.6 0.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 6.3 7.1 5.1 1.4 63.3 59.8 3.6 5.6 7.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 6.0 6.4 4.0 1.1 61.0 57.8 3.5 5.3 7.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 6.0 6.4 4.1 1.1 60.9 57.7 3.4 5.2 7.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 6.0 6.6 3.8 1.2 62.6 59.2 3.4 5.3 7.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 5.9 5.9 3.3 0.6 56.7 54.4 3.3 5.1 6.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 82 18 100 6.9 7.9 5.8 1.6 64.0 60.6 4.1 6.2 8.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 5.5 6.0 4.0 1.2 61.1 57.5 2.9 4.8 6.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 6.2 6.3 3.2 0.8 58.0 55.4 3.4 5.4 7.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 87 13 100 4.5 6.2 6.4 2.1 69.6 66.4 2.3 4.1 5.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 4.8 5.1 3.8 1.1 60.6 57.7 2.8 4.2 5.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 87 13 100 4.9 6.7 6.6 2.1 68.3 65.1 2.4 4.4 6.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 53 47 0 100 -0.3 2.8 2.2 1.0 60.7 57.9 0.0 1.7 3.3 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 82 18 100 5.9 6.9 5.9 1.5 64.5 60.9 3.4 5.3 7.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 87 13 100 5.3 7.2 6.6 2.0 69.0 65.9 2.8 4.9 6.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 86 14 100 5.3 6.9 6.7 2.0 67.9 64.6 3.0 4.9 6.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 80 20 100 6.6 7.4 5.5 1.4 63.1 59.7 3.9 5.9 7.8 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 83 17 100 4.5 5.2 4.2 1.2 62.1 58.7 2.2 4.0 5.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 75 25 100 5.5 5.8 2.9 1.0 61.1 58.2 3.0 4.7 6.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 83 17 100 5.0 6.0 5.2 1.4 64.1 61.0 2.4 4.4 6.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 6.4 6.7 3.2 1.1 59.8 56.6 3.7 5.7 7.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 75 25 100 2.8 3.2 3.3 1.1 60.8 57.9 0.2 2.0 3.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 87 13 100 4.6 6.3 6.4 2.0 68.1 64.9 2.1 4.1 6.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------