***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 18.01.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 22.01.2018.-18.02.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 5.6 6.0 5.4 0.8 60.4 57.5 3.3 5.0 6.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 41 59 100 6.3 6.1 5.9 1.2 65.2 61.8 3.2 4.7 6.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 6.3 6.8 5.9 0.9 62.0 58.7 4.1 5.7 7.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 75 25 100 0.4 0.0 2.0 0.3 53.6 52.0 -1.7 -0.3 1.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 6.2 6.1 3.6 0.5 56.4 54.0 4.0 5.5 7.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 51 49 0 100 3.3 4.7 1.9 -0.1 48.7 48.0 3.5 4.8 6.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 81 19 100 4.8 5.7 5.8 1.1 65.2 61.8 2.7 4.3 5.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 75 25 100 -1.1 -1.1 3.1 0.5 57.9 55.4 -2.7 -1.6 -0.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 6.7 6.8 4.6 0.6 58.4 55.6 4.5 6.1 7.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 75 25 100 6.4 6.3 3.6 0.5 56.8 54.4 4.2 5.7 7.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 6.4 6.3 3.6 0.4 55.4 53.2 4.3 5.8 7.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 6.2 6.2 3.5 0.5 57.1 54.8 4.2 5.6 7.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 52 48 0 100 4.1 5.8 2.9 0.1 51.1 49.8 4.3 5.7 7.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 38 62 100 8.0 7.6 5.5 1.1 64.4 60.5 4.6 6.3 7.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 75 25 100 5.6 5.1 3.0 0.1 51.9 51.1 3.4 4.9 6.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 6.8 6.4 2.9 0.2 52.3 50.8 4.7 6.2 7.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 39 61 100 5.9 5.8 5.9 1.3 67.1 63.6 2.9 4.3 5.7 30 Palic 37000G16 54 46 0 100 3.3 5.5 3.8 0.7 59.3 56.5 3.6 4.8 6.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 41 59 100 6.6 6.3 6.0 1.2 65.2 61.6 3.2 4.9 6.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 51 49 0 100 0.7 2.8 2.0 0.6 59.0 56.3 0.9 2.2 3.4 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 6.4 6.7 5.3 0.7 59.9 56.8 4.3 5.8 7.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 39 61 100 6.7 6.6 6.1 1.3 67.3 63.6 3.4 5.0 6.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 41 59 100 6.7 6.5 6.3 1.2 65.6 61.7 3.5 5.0 6.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 52 48 0 100 4.3 7.1 5.2 0.9 61.7 58.3 4.6 6.1 7.5 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 5.2 5.2 3.7 0.5 56.9 54.5 3.2 4.6 6.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 5.8 5.7 2.6 0.3 55.1 52.9 4.2 5.4 6.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 5.7 6.0 4.8 0.7 59.5 56.6 3.6 5.1 6.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 75 25 100 6.5 6.0 2.5 0.2 52.1 51.0 4.2 5.8 7.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 54 46 0 100 0.6 3.0 3.3 0.7 59.8 56.9 0.9 2.2 3.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 5.1 5.8 5.8 1.1 64.1 60.7 3.0 4.6 6.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------