***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 18.01.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 29.01.2018.-04.02.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 57 43 0 100 1.4 1.9 6.6 57.8 42.0 36.2 1.3 2.5 4.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 54 46 0 100 1.9 2.6 5.3 55.3 44.2 36.8 1.9 3.1 4.5 30 Becej 27400G00 58 42 0 100 2.5 3.6 6.6 59.0 42.7 36.6 2.6 4.6 7.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 54 46 0 100 4.1 5.3 7.3 56.2 41.2 36.0 4.0 6.9 10.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 52 48 0 100 4.3 5.8 8.0 62.2 43.5 37.6 4.1 7.0 10.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 54 46 0 100 3.2 5.1 8.8 69.8 47.2 39.5 3.0 5.6 9.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 53 47 0 100 2.0 2.7 5.1 54.5 43.6 36.4 1.9 3.3 5.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 55 45 0 100 6.5 9.2 9.0 64.6 44.3 38.1 6.3 11.0 17.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 5.6 3.5 8.7 65.4 44.8 39.0 2.2 4.2 7.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 52 48 0 100 3.7 5.3 9.0 65.4 45.1 38.3 3.4 6.1 9.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 51 49 0 100 3.1 4.4 8.5 65.1 44.7 39.1 2.7 5.3 8.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 54 46 0 100 2.9 4.1 8.2 63.3 42.8 37.6 2.6 5.3 9.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 56 44 0 100 3.2 5.0 8.7 64.4 44.9 38.2 3.0 6.0 10.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 55 45 0 100 3.3 4.8 9.0 63.3 43.9 38.1 3.1 5.9 9.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 63 37 0 100 1.8 2.9 5.9 50.8 41.9 34.0 1.7 4.2 7.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 52 48 0 100 3.0 4.0 8.1 61.9 43.1 37.5 2.7 5.0 8.2 30 Nis 06700G01 54 46 0 100 1.8 2.6 5.1 56.2 45.0 37.2 1.7 3.1 5.0 30 Palic 37000G16 57 43 0 100 3.5 5.4 9.8 68.5 45.7 38.7 3.5 6.1 9.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 56 44 0 100 1.8 2.5 5.7 56.3 43.5 36.6 1.7 3.0 4.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 57 43 0 100 3.3 5.0 11.3 64.2 44.2 37.0 3.3 6.0 9.8 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 6.3 4.2 8.0 63.0 44.1 37.9 2.9 5.0 7.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 56 44 0 100 1.7 2.6 5.6 57.7 45.5 36.9 1.6 3.0 4.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 53 47 0 100 1.6 2.1 6.5 58.6 42.3 36.9 1.5 2.8 4.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 57 43 0 100 3.6 5.3 8.9 65.9 44.7 38.3 3.7 6.3 9.8 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 75 25 100 6.6 4.4 8.5 65.5 46.5 39.8 2.6 4.9 8.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 52 48 0 100 2.9 3.9 8.0 60.5 42.9 36.3 2.4 5.2 9.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 54 46 0 100 2.3 3.5 7.7 64.6 46.2 39.6 2.3 3.9 6.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 60 40 0 100 2.2 3.1 6.6 53.6 41.5 34.6 2.2 4.3 7.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 56 44 0 100 5.9 8.6 10.9 69.3 45.6 38.7 5.9 9.7 14.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 55 45 0 100 1.9 2.5 5.5 55.0 43.2 36.3 1.9 3.0 4.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------