***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 18.01.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 05.02.2018.-11.02.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 52 48 0 100 2.6 5.6 8.4 86.6 58.1 44.7 2.4 4.4 7.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 53 47 0 100 2.9 6.2 7.1 80.7 55.7 43.9 2.6 5.1 8.8 30 Becej 27400G00 52 48 0 100 3.3 8.6 9.0 95.5 61.2 46.9 3.0 5.9 10.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 9.8 10.0 9.7 88.7 59.3 48.4 4.0 7.5 12.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 10.4 10.8 10.3 91.9 60.1 49.3 4.7 8.1 12.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 7.7 6.4 8.4 73.3 51.3 44.0 3.6 6.1 9.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 54 46 0 100 2.7 5.7 7.1 81.8 56.2 44.5 2.6 4.8 7.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 13.4 12.8 10.5 87.7 57.8 46.8 5.5 10.2 16.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 52 48 0 100 3.5 8.6 11.5 97.8 62.0 50.7 3.2 5.9 9.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 75 25 100 10.6 10.8 11.4 93.1 59.8 48.4 4.5 8.1 12.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 8.8 8.5 9.5 86.4 57.6 48.2 3.5 6.6 11.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 7.3 6.7 9.1 83.9 56.2 46.7 3.1 5.6 9.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 54 46 0 100 4.1 7.6 9.2 77.8 53.3 44.8 3.9 6.9 10.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 53 47 0 100 4.6 11.7 12.4 99.1 62.0 47.9 4.3 8.0 13.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 51 49 0 100 3.8 9.3 9.1 86.3 59.5 47.3 3.4 6.7 11.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 7.7 6.8 8.8 79.9 54.6 45.9 3.4 5.9 9.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 75 25 100 7.8 6.8 6.8 76.7 54.4 42.8 3.3 5.9 9.5 30 Palic 37000G16 52 48 0 100 4.0 9.1 13.0 100.3 62.4 48.5 3.8 6.5 10.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 53 47 0 100 3.5 7.8 7.6 85.3 57.3 44.8 3.2 6.1 10.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 54 46 0 100 3.6 8.6 15.1 95.3 60.5 45.3 3.4 6.2 10.2 29 Sjenica 27900G10 54 46 0 100 3.9 10.3 10.5 98.7 62.8 49.3 3.7 6.8 11.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 53 47 0 100 3.5 6.7 7.1 75.8 53.9 42.0 3.3 6.0 9.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 53 47 0 100 3.1 8.1 8.9 94.1 60.6 47.0 2.8 5.6 9.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 51 49 0 100 4.9 12.1 11.8 101.3 63.0 48.9 4.5 8.2 13.2 29 Valjevo 28500G11 52 48 0 100 3.9 9.2 10.3 93.6 60.9 47.8 3.6 6.7 10.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 56 44 0 100 2.4 4.8 8.7 76.4 53.0 43.1 2.2 4.4 7.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 54 46 0 100 3.8 8.8 9.0 87.6 58.5 45.6 3.6 6.7 11.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 7.5 7.1 8.8 82.9 57.2 46.8 2.8 5.5 9.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 51 49 0 100 6.1 14.6 14.3 101.9 62.8 48.0 5.6 10.0 16.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 54 46 0 100 2.9 6.5 7.5 84.4 57.1 44.8 2.7 5.2 8.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------