***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 18.01.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 22.01.2018.-18.02.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 78 22 0 100 13.8 15.7 28.1 65.5 28.2 29.5 17.9 25.7 34.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 67 33 0 100 16.0 18.0 24.5 67.3 32.7 32.3 18.2 25.5 33.8 30 Becej 27400G00 75 25 0 100 19.7 23.3 28.9 67.8 30.9 31.4 24.3 34.6 46.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 76 24 0 100 22.7 23.7 31.8 62.2 26.0 27.1 28.1 39.3 52.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 73 27 0 100 24.5 26.2 34.4 68.4 28.1 29.3 29.4 40.4 53.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 65 35 0 100 19.8 21.6 35.0 72.6 31.7 32.4 22.2 31.8 42.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 67 33 0 100 15.0 16.9 24.0 67.6 32.6 32.1 17.1 23.8 31.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 62 38 0 100 41.9 43.0 38.0 71.3 29.8 31.5 45.2 58.0 72.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 68 32 0 100 20.9 22.5 35.8 70.9 29.9 31.2 24.0 32.8 42.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 64 36 0 100 28.3 29.7 39.4 72.8 30.3 32.1 31.2 41.3 52.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 69 31 0 100 20.8 21.4 34.2 68.7 27.7 29.2 24.2 34.5 46.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 64 36 0 100 18.3 17.3 32.8 68.1 27.8 29.6 20.4 31.9 45.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 62 38 0 100 24.3 24.3 37.6 71.3 29.3 31.0 26.5 37.1 49.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 72 28 0 100 30.5 33.5 38.5 70.4 29.8 31.7 35.4 46.4 58.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 72 28 0 100 14.1 16.0 28.9 59.6 30.5 29.5 17.5 30.0 45.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 71 29 0 100 17.9 18.0 33.4 67.1 26.6 28.4 21.2 30.6 41.6 30 Nis 06700G01 67 33 0 100 16.1 18.7 23.6 68.4 34.2 32.8 18.3 25.4 33.5 30 Palic 37000G16 64 36 0 100 26.0 28.1 42.7 75.5 32.0 33.8 28.5 37.7 48.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 68 32 0 100 19.3 21.9 25.8 67.8 32.7 32.6 22.1 29.8 38.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 62 38 0 100 25.4 28.0 50.7 76.0 33.9 34.5 27.6 38.1 50.1 29 Sjenica 27900G10 72 28 0 100 21.7 24.1 32.8 69.2 30.1 31.0 25.7 34.7 45.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 65 35 0 100 17.4 20.1 25.2 68.3 34.6 33.1 19.4 26.9 35.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 71 29 0 100 17.8 20.6 28.7 69.0 32.3 32.7 20.8 28.1 36.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 69 31 0 100 28.6 31.7 37.4 72.3 31.2 32.7 32.7 42.5 53.8 29 Valjevo 28500G11 77 23 0 100 19.0 21.6 33.9 68.1 28.5 29.8 24.3 35.6 49.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 63 37 0 100 17.8 18.1 34.0 68.7 29.8 31.2 19.6 29.0 40.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 76 24 0 100 16.4 18.7 30.6 67.6 28.7 30.3 20.9 30.7 42.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 77 23 0 100 12.1 13.4 29.7 60.7 27.3 27.8 16.4 27.5 41.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 62 38 0 100 43.6 47.6 46.4 77.3 33.7 34.6 47.2 60.1 74.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 67 33 0 100 16.2 18.0 25.3 66.7 31.8 31.7 18.5 26.0 34.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------