***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 19.01.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 23.01.2012.-29.01.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 87 13 100 9999.0 -0.7 -2.0 1.1 62.5 61.4 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 89 11 100 -2.9 -1.3 -1.6 1.5 68.8 67.1 -5.0 -3.2 -1.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 90 10 100 -0.9 0.1 -2.1 1.1 63.2 62.1 -2.9 -1.2 0.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 89 11 100 -6.4 -5.9 -5.0 0.7 57.4 56.8 -8.7 -6.7 -4.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 86 14 100 -2.7 -2.6 -4.4 0.5 54.8 54.5 -5.0 -3.1 -1.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 87 13 100 -3.9 -5.1 -7.8 -0.8 41.8 42.4 -6.1 -4.3 -2.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 89 11 100 -2.6 -1.1 -1.8 1.4 67.3 65.5 -4.8 -3.0 -1.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 86 14 100 -7.7 -8.2 -6.4 -0.1 48.8 49.0 -9.8 -8.1 -6.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 88 12 100 -2.1 -1.5 -3.5 0.8 58.7 58.1 -4.3 -2.4 -0.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 88 12 100 -2.6 -2.5 -5.3 0.4 54.3 53.9 -4.6 -2.9 -1.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 85 15 100 -2.6 -3.3 -5.3 -0.2 47.7 48.0 -4.9 -3.1 -1.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 84 16 100 -3.0 -4.1 -5.9 -0.5 44.7 45.5 -5.4 -3.5 -1.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 85 15 100 -2.6 -4.0 -6.4 -1.0 40.8 41.7 -4.8 -3.0 -1.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 89 11 100 -2.0 -1.3 -3.4 1.0 60.8 59.5 -3.9 -2.3 -0.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 41 59 100 -1.4 -1.4 -3.0 1.7 66.9 65.9 -5.2 -3.3 -1.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 87 13 100 -2.0 -2.9 -6.0 -0.5 44.9 45.4 -4.1 -2.4 -0.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 47 53 100 -1.7 -1.3 -1.6 1.7 70.0 68.1 -4.8 -3.2 -1.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 90 10 100 -4.3 -4.4 -6.5 0.1 51.2 50.9 -6.2 -4.5 -3.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 88 12 100 -2.7 -1.1 -1.7 1.5 68.6 67.0 -4.9 -3.1 -1.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 90 10 100 -7.3 -7.3 -7.6 0.3 52.6 52.3 -10.0 -7.7 -5.5 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 88 12 100 -2.2 -1.4 -2.4 1.2 62.3 61.5 -4.4 -2.6 -0.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 34 66 100 -1.4 -1.0 -1.4 1.8 72.4 70.6 -4.9 -3.3 -1.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 89 11 100 -2.7 -1.4 -2.0 1.3 66.6 65.4 -4.6 -3.0 -1.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 88 12 100 -2.8 -2.7 -4.5 0.4 55.0 54.4 -4.8 -3.1 -1.6 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 89 11 100 -2.8 -2.5 -3.7 0.6 56.6 55.9 -4.8 -3.1 -1.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 83 17 100 -2.6 -4.2 -6.7 -1.1 38.6 39.9 -4.8 -3.1 -1.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 89 11 100 -2.6 -1.9 -2.9 0.8 58.6 57.7 -5.0 -3.0 -1.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 87 13 100 -3.7 -3.0 -4.2 1.0 60.3 59.6 -6.1 -4.2 -2.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 86 14 100 -5.0 -5.8 -7.5 -0.3 46.8 47.0 -7.3 -5.5 -3.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 89 11 100 -2.6 -1.1 -1.7 1.4 66.8 65.3 -4.7 -2.9 -1.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------