***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 19.01.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 23.01.2012.-29.01.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 87 13 100 9999.0 6.2 4.1 1.0 61.2 58.8 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 88 12 100 3.9 5.4 4.5 1.6 68.0 64.6 1.6 3.5 5.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 87 13 100 5.0 6.1 4.6 1.2 62.7 59.9 2.3 4.5 6.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 84 16 100 0.1 0.0 1.1 0.4 53.5 52.5 -2.4 -0.4 1.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 82 18 100 5.2 4.9 2.2 0.3 53.0 51.9 2.6 4.6 6.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 4.6 3.5 0.2 -0.4 45.9 46.4 2.2 3.9 5.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 88 12 100 3.4 4.8 4.1 1.5 66.5 63.4 1.1 3.0 4.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 81 19 100 -1.0 -1.4 1.4 0.1 50.8 50.1 -3.0 -1.5 -0.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 86 14 100 5.5 5.9 3.5 0.7 57.1 55.0 3.0 5.0 6.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 82 18 100 5.0 4.9 2.4 0.5 54.6 53.1 2.5 4.4 6.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 81 19 100 5.3 4.8 2.2 0.1 51.4 50.4 2.7 4.7 6.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 80 20 100 5.4 4.4 1.6 -0.2 48.0 47.7 2.6 4.6 6.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 5.3 4.1 1.4 -0.5 45.0 45.4 2.8 4.6 6.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 86 14 100 5.7 6.9 4.5 1.3 63.3 60.3 2.7 5.1 7.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 88 12 100 4.1 4.9 2.9 1.1 60.4 58.8 1.7 3.7 5.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 81 19 100 5.9 5.1 1.7 -0.1 49.0 48.6 3.2 5.2 7.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 48 52 100 4.6 5.0 4.2 1.7 69.7 65.9 1.3 3.0 4.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 80 20 100 3.7 3.5 1.8 0.3 53.3 52.2 1.7 3.2 4.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 89 11 100 4.2 6.0 4.7 1.7 67.8 64.4 1.6 3.7 5.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 80 20 100 2.3 1.5 -0.2 -0.1 49.1 49.0 -0.3 1.6 3.4 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 86 14 100 5.2 5.7 4.0 0.9 58.7 56.5 2.8 4.8 6.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 87 13 100 4.3 6.3 4.7 1.9 71.7 67.5 1.9 3.8 5.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 88 12 100 4.0 5.4 4.9 1.6 66.4 63.1 1.7 3.6 5.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 85 15 100 5.4 5.9 3.7 0.9 58.7 56.5 2.7 4.8 6.8 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 86 14 100 3.9 4.1 2.6 0.7 57.0 55.2 1.8 3.5 5.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 4.8 3.2 0.3 -1.0 38.8 40.1 2.7 4.2 5.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 87 13 100 4.5 5.1 3.3 0.8 59.3 57.1 2.1 4.0 5.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 85 15 100 5.2 5.2 1.9 0.5 54.7 53.7 2.5 4.6 6.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 80 20 100 2.3 1.8 1.1 0.2 52.3 51.5 -0.3 1.6 3.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 89 11 100 3.6 5.0 4.5 1.5 66.0 63.0 1.3 3.2 5.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------