***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 19.01.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 06.02.2012.-12.02.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 9999.0 5.6 4.9 -0.3 47.2 48.5 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 7.2 5.8 4.7 -0.4 46.3 48.4 4.1 6.3 8.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 8.2 7.0 5.1 -0.3 46.8 48.3 5.2 7.4 9.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 1.9 0.4 2.9 -0.6 44.4 45.1 -1.1 1.1 3.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 81 19 100 8.1 6.8 3.6 -0.5 45.5 46.3 5.2 7.4 9.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 7.2 5.8 1.6 -0.7 43.3 44.2 4.6 6.5 8.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 6.7 5.4 4.5 -0.3 46.5 48.4 3.6 5.8 8.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 -0.3 -1.1 2.7 -0.5 45.2 46.4 -2.1 -0.8 0.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 80 20 100 8.6 7.5 4.4 -0.3 47.3 48.1 5.7 7.9 9.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 8.3 7.0 3.4 -0.4 45.8 47.0 5.3 7.5 9.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 80 20 100 8.3 7.0 3.6 -0.4 46.3 47.1 5.3 7.5 9.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 8.0 6.8 3.4 -0.4 45.7 46.8 5.3 7.3 9.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 8.2 6.6 2.6 -0.6 43.8 45.0 5.3 7.4 9.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 8.8 7.3 4.5 -0.5 45.2 47.0 5.5 7.9 10.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 7.0 5.7 3.1 -0.4 46.4 46.6 3.9 6.2 8.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 8.6 7.2 2.9 -0.6 44.5 45.4 5.7 7.8 9.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 6.7 5.4 4.5 -0.4 45.5 47.7 3.9 5.9 7.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 7.7 6.2 2.8 -0.6 43.9 45.6 4.9 6.9 8.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 7.4 5.9 5.0 -0.4 46.2 48.3 4.1 6.4 8.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 4.1 2.5 0.6 -0.9 41.4 43.5 1.5 3.4 5.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 80 20 100 8.3 7.2 4.8 -0.3 47.3 48.3 5.4 7.5 9.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 52 48 0 100 4.0 6.0 4.8 -0.5 44.9 47.2 4.4 6.6 8.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 7.7 6.3 5.2 -0.4 46.2 48.1 4.4 6.8 9.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 8.8 7.4 4.3 -0.5 45.7 47.2 5.7 8.0 10.1 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 80 20 100 7.1 6.0 3.4 -0.4 46.3 47.1 4.4 6.4 8.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 7.7 6.3 2.4 -0.7 43.0 44.5 5.3 7.0 8.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 80 20 100 7.7 6.6 4.0 -0.3 46.8 47.9 4.9 7.0 8.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 79 21 100 8.2 6.5 3.0 -0.6 44.8 45.3 4.8 7.3 9.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 4.2 2.8 1.9 -0.7 43.0 44.9 1.7 3.5 5.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 7.2 5.9 4.8 -0.3 46.6 48.5 4.0 6.3 8.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------