***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 19.01.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 13.02.2012.-19.02.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 61 39 0 100 9999.0 3.3 6.3 -0.1 49.3 50.5 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 61 39 0 100 2.1 4.6 6.0 -0.2 47.2 49.5 2.9 5.0 7.0 30 Becej 27400G00 58 42 0 100 2.7 5.3 6.6 -0.1 48.4 50.1 3.4 5.5 7.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 60 40 0 100 -3.7 -1.5 4.5 -0.4 45.6 48.0 -3.0 -1.0 0.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 75 25 100 6.4 5.1 5.2 -0.3 46.2 48.6 3.4 5.5 7.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 57 43 0 100 2.4 3.9 3.0 -0.7 41.1 45.0 2.9 4.8 6.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 65 35 0 100 1.5 4.3 5.8 -0.2 47.7 49.8 2.5 4.6 6.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 52 48 0 100 -4.8 -3.5 4.0 -0.6 42.8 46.5 -4.5 -2.8 -1.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 75 25 100 6.6 5.4 5.9 -0.2 48.1 49.9 3.5 5.7 7.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 75 25 100 6.6 5.1 4.8 -0.4 44.8 47.9 3.6 5.7 7.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 6.7 5.4 5.2 -0.3 46.4 48.9 3.7 5.9 7.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 53 47 0 100 2.9 4.6 4.8 -0.5 44.3 47.5 3.3 5.3 7.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 54 46 0 100 3.3 4.8 4.0 -0.7 41.3 45.4 3.8 5.8 7.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 55 45 0 100 3.1 5.3 5.8 -0.4 45.5 48.3 3.7 5.8 7.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 56 44 0 100 2.5 4.9 4.6 -0.1 48.5 50.0 3.0 5.0 6.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 54 46 0 100 3.7 5.5 4.5 -0.5 43.8 47.1 4.2 6.3 8.2 30 Nis 06700G01 61 39 0 100 1.9 4.2 5.6 -0.3 46.0 48.8 2.7 4.7 6.5 30 Palic 37000G16 51 49 0 100 2.7 4.2 4.1 -0.7 42.3 46.0 3.0 5.1 6.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 57 43 0 100 2.1 4.6 6.2 -0.3 47.1 49.5 2.7 5.0 7.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 2.7 0.4 1.6 -1.1 36.5 41.6 0.0 1.9 3.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 55 45 0 100 2.9 5.5 6.4 -0.1 49.1 50.5 3.5 5.6 7.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 53 47 0 100 2.6 4.5 5.8 -0.5 44.9 48.1 3.0 5.1 7.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 54 46 0 100 2.4 4.7 6.5 -0.3 47.0 49.3 2.9 5.1 7.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 52 48 0 100 3.2 5.3 5.7 -0.3 46.1 48.6 3.6 5.7 7.7 29 Valjevo 28500G11 59 41 0 100 2.2 4.6 4.9 -0.1 48.3 49.5 2.8 4.8 6.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 55 45 0 100 3.1 4.4 3.8 -0.8 39.8 44.3 3.6 5.6 7.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 62 38 0 100 2.2 5.1 5.5 -0.1 48.7 49.9 3.1 5.2 7.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 58 42 0 100 2.8 5.0 4.7 -0.3 45.9 48.3 3.4 5.5 7.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 2.4 0.4 3.1 -0.8 40.8 44.9 -0.6 1.5 3.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 61 39 0 100 1.9 4.5 6.2 -0.2 47.8 49.8 2.7 4.8 6.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------