***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 19.01.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 23.01.2012.-19.02.2012. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 81 19 100 9999.0 37.9 47.7 111.7 65.2 60.0 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 83 17 100 28.1 33.0 45.5 111.3 65.0 60.1 17.6 25.1 33.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 82 18 100 38.7 44.1 47.5 108.0 63.0 57.8 22.7 33.9 47.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 81 19 100 44.3 53.3 55.4 114.8 66.9 61.3 27.7 39.2 52.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 81 19 100 45.3 51.4 53.9 109.9 64.0 58.7 29.2 40.3 53.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 38 62 100 46.4 49.7 59.7 123.4 72.9 65.8 22.8 32.2 43.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 84 16 100 26.1 31.1 45.1 111.1 64.9 60.1 16.3 23.4 31.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 81 19 100 64.2 71.8 59.4 111.9 65.3 60.4 46.7 59.1 72.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 80 20 100 37.2 42.1 54.8 110.4 64.3 58.9 23.9 33.0 43.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 81 19 100 45.4 50.3 57.6 108.8 63.2 58.3 30.8 41.0 52.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 81 19 100 38.4 45.7 53.2 113.3 66.1 60.8 23.9 33.9 45.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 81 19 100 37.1 47.1 53.8 115.1 67.4 62.3 20.4 31.6 45.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 81 19 100 43.0 54.9 57.5 119.5 70.5 64.5 27.6 38.2 50.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 82 18 100 50.2 54.8 56.4 107.2 62.2 57.4 34.3 45.6 58.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 41 59 100 49.7 49.2 54.0 118.6 68.7 62.5 18.8 30.6 46.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 81 19 100 35.4 44.4 54.9 117.6 69.0 62.9 22.1 31.3 42.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 81 19 100 28.1 33.6 43.7 113.6 66.2 61.2 17.4 24.7 33.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 80 20 100 42.4 45.5 62.2 106.3 61.4 56.5 28.6 38.1 48.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 83 17 100 31.8 37.4 46.4 110.7 64.6 59.7 19.6 28.3 38.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 81 19 100 43.1 49.5 77.5 111.1 64.7 58.9 27.6 38.3 50.6 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 82 18 100 38.3 44.5 51.6 111.6 65.0 59.6 24.9 34.3 45.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 81 19 100 29.4 35.4 45.5 114.3 66.5 61.5 17.7 25.8 35.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 83 17 100 29.9 34.4 48.8 108.8 63.5 58.7 18.6 26.6 36.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 46.8 49.9 55.3 106.1 61.4 56.7 31.0 41.7 53.7 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 82 18 100 41.4 48.5 54.7 110.4 64.3 59.4 24.8 36.4 50.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 35 65 100 45.6 47.0 59.8 121.6 71.7 65.5 20.9 30.4 41.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 83 17 100 35.4 42.1 51.9 111.1 64.8 59.8 21.1 31.2 43.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 82 18 100 33.7 44.7 53.8 116.2 67.8 61.5 16.9 28.2 42.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 81 19 100 66.1 72.0 68.1 108.3 62.8 57.4 46.8 60.4 75.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 83 17 100 28.8 33.5 45.6 109.6 64.1 59.1 17.7 25.6 34.7 30 Zrenjanin ------------------------------ ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju ------------------------------ ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 na severu 0.6-0.7, na jugu 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------