***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 19.01.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 23.01.2012.-29.01.2012. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 9999.0 11.2 11.0 97.5 63.0 55.0 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 7.1 6.9 8.8 84.5 58.5 50.1 2.5 5.2 8.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 9.6 10.1 10.9 91.4 60.1 52.2 3.5 7.1 12.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 8.9 10.5 14.7 104.6 64.3 55.6 3.2 6.4 11.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 9.3 10.8 14.3 101.5 63.2 55.2 3.8 7.0 11.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 38 62 100 14.3 15.6 16.7 130.7 72.9 60.7 4.2 7.8 12.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 80 20 100 6.8 7.2 8.8 86.8 59.8 51.8 2.5 5.1 8.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 11.8 13.5 15.8 100.5 63.2 56.2 5.4 9.3 14.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 80 20 100 7.5 9.7 15.0 107.9 65.6 58.6 2.6 5.6 10.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 8.5 10.3 15.6 102.9 63.7 56.7 3.1 6.3 11.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 8.1 10.2 14.8 107.4 65.5 57.1 3.1 6.1 10.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 8.3 10.6 14.9 106.4 65.3 57.2 2.8 6.0 10.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 42 58 100 13.6 13.9 16.4 121.4 70.1 60.8 3.3 6.9 12.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 81 19 100 12.2 14.1 13.9 97.7 61.9 54.8 4.6 9.3 16.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 8.2 8.8 13.3 95.7 61.6 50.9 2.6 5.8 10.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 8.7 11.5 15.5 114.0 67.5 57.6 3.4 6.6 11.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 81 19 100 6.5 6.9 8.4 85.7 59.4 51.6 2.5 5.0 8.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 8.5 9.9 16.3 100.3 62.7 55.9 3.0 6.3 11.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 7.8 7.8 9.4 85.8 58.7 50.6 2.9 5.8 10.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 9.4 9.9 18.1 92.5 60.0 53.3 3.4 6.9 12.2 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 81 19 100 7.9 10.4 13.9 108.2 65.9 58.8 3.0 6.1 10.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 7.1 6.9 8.6 82.2 57.4 49.6 2.6 5.3 9.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 81 19 100 7.0 7.4 10.7 88.1 59.0 51.8 2.6 5.3 9.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 81 19 100 10.1 12.0 14.4 100.2 62.8 56.0 4.0 7.8 13.4 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 10.0 11.3 13.1 98.0 62.2 54.4 3.9 7.6 12.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 39 61 100 13.0 12.1 16.1 113.6 67.9 58.9 3.6 6.9 11.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 81 19 100 8.3 10.0 11.9 98.5 62.9 55.4 3.0 6.3 11.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 51 49 0 100 3.2 9.1 14.1 103.0 63.9 53.2 2.7 5.6 9.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 13.3 15.1 17.1 98.8 62.1 55.3 5.1 10.1 17.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 7.6 7.4 9.0 84.1 58.2 50.2 2.7 5.5 9.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------