***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 19.01.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 30.01.2012.-05.02.2012. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 52 48 0 100 9999.0 4.0 11.0 108.3 66.3 54.9 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 51 49 0 100 1.8 4.7 11.2 116.3 68.9 56.7 1.7 2.8 4.4 30 Becej 27400G00 52 48 0 100 2.2 6.7 11.1 105.5 65.1 54.6 2.0 3.9 6.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 8.4 10.7 12.8 112.3 67.6 57.6 3.8 6.6 10.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 75 25 100 8.3 9.1 11.7 97.7 62.5 53.0 3.4 6.3 10.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 75 25 100 7.1 8.3 13.3 103.6 64.8 55.1 3.0 5.3 8.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 51 49 0 100 2.0 5.3 11.2 114.7 68.4 56.0 1.9 3.2 5.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 75 25 100 13.5 14.5 12.8 98.6 61.9 52.8 5.5 10.1 16.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 5.5 5.9 11.7 95.5 61.2 52.5 2.5 4.3 6.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 75 25 100 7.0 7.0 12.3 93.1 59.8 51.2 2.8 5.2 8.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 52 48 0 100 3.2 7.5 11.4 98.2 62.4 52.5 3.1 5.3 8.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 52 48 0 100 3.1 7.7 11.7 100.1 62.7 53.1 3.0 5.3 8.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 51 49 0 100 3.7 9.1 12.3 98.2 62.3 52.4 3.3 6.2 10.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 52 48 0 100 2.8 7.1 13.0 96.9 61.0 52.1 2.5 4.9 8.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 79 21 100 5.9 10.9 13.9 134.3 73.9 62.3 1.5 4.0 7.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 53 47 0 100 3.2 7.6 12.0 101.4 63.8 53.7 3.1 5.2 8.0 30 Nis 06700G01 51 49 0 100 1.9 5.6 10.8 118.4 69.6 56.9 1.7 3.1 5.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 7.0 6.9 13.5 90.4 58.0 49.9 3.2 5.5 8.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 35 65 100 5.7 5.3 11.5 116.2 68.7 57.2 1.7 3.1 4.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 6.6 7.6 17.7 103.8 63.0 53.6 2.2 4.7 8.4 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 5.6 6.2 11.1 98.6 62.5 53.2 2.5 4.4 6.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 36 64 100 5.4 5.4 11.2 121.3 70.3 57.2 1.5 2.8 4.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 35 65 100 5.3 4.7 12.1 112.0 67.2 57.0 1.5 2.8 4.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 7.7 8.0 12.3 93.4 59.6 51.4 3.8 6.2 9.3 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 6.3 7.7 12.1 104.2 64.8 54.3 2.3 4.6 8.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 52 48 0 100 2.9 8.9 13.6 108.4 66.0 54.7 2.6 5.2 9.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 5.4 6.5 11.8 107.0 65.8 54.5 2.5 4.2 6.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 5.1 7.1 12.9 115.7 68.8 58.2 1.9 3.7 6.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 10.6 10.9 15.2 94.8 59.5 50.8 4.6 8.2 13.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 53 47 0 100 1.8 4.3 11.2 113.8 68.1 55.7 1.8 2.8 4.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------