***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 19.01.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 06.02.2012.-12.02.2012. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 80 20 100 9999.0 7.8 14.2 123.8 71.4 61.4 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 39 61 100 10.1 10.8 13.8 126.8 72.0 61.6 2.4 5.0 8.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 8.9 13.2 14.3 122.2 70.8 61.1 3.5 6.9 11.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 38 62 100 14.6 15.2 15.5 124.8 71.5 62.1 3.9 7.6 12.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 80 20 100 10.2 15.3 15.8 126.6 71.9 62.4 4.6 8.1 12.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 36 64 100 10.4 11.5 16.9 134.2 73.9 64.8 3.7 6.1 9.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 38 62 100 8.7 9.0 13.5 124.2 71.3 61.1 2.2 4.4 7.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 39 61 100 19.2 21.9 17.7 135.7 74.2 65.5 6.0 10.8 17.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 80 20 100 8.3 12.9 16.1 126.4 71.8 62.2 3.4 6.4 10.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 81 19 100 10.7 16.9 17.1 128.6 72.4 63.9 4.4 8.5 13.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 81 19 100 9.0 14.4 15.3 131.2 73.1 64.2 3.9 7.2 11.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 36 64 100 11.6 13.4 15.7 139.2 75.1 65.9 3.2 6.1 10.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 31 69 100 12.7 14.2 16.5 139.3 75.2 66.4 3.5 6.5 10.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 81 19 100 10.4 16.2 16.3 125.7 71.5 62.1 4.1 8.1 13.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 38 62 100 12.9 13.9 15.0 127.3 72.5 61.7 3.0 6.3 11.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 36 64 100 11.0 12.1 15.5 134.6 74.0 64.9 3.2 5.9 9.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 39 61 100 10.9 11.6 12.8 126.9 72.1 61.4 3.2 5.9 9.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 82 18 100 8.6 13.1 18.4 127.3 71.9 63.6 4.0 7.1 11.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 40 60 100 11.8 12.7 14.0 126.7 72.0 61.9 3.2 6.2 10.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 37 63 100 12.8 14.6 23.4 136.5 74.4 65.4 4.0 7.0 11.4 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 9.3 14.1 14.9 123.6 71.1 61.1 3.6 7.0 12.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 38 62 100 10.8 11.8 13.4 129.6 72.8 61.8 3.1 5.9 9.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 80 20 100 7.7 11.9 14.3 124.8 71.3 62.0 3.0 5.9 10.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 81 19 100 10.5 15.8 16.0 122.3 70.5 61.8 4.4 8.3 13.7 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 41 59 100 13.7 14.4 16.1 122.5 70.9 61.8 3.8 7.3 12.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 34 66 100 9.4 11.2 17.4 144.5 76.4 67.1 2.4 4.7 7.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 42 58 100 13.1 13.8 15.5 122.6 71.0 61.7 3.9 7.4 11.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 37 63 100 11.8 12.5 15.0 126.9 72.2 62.2 2.8 5.8 10.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 42 58 100 18.9 21.1 20.1 130.2 72.7 64.2 5.4 10.3 17.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 40 60 100 9.9 10.5 14.0 125.3 71.6 61.2 2.7 5.2 8.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------