***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 19.01.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 13.02.2012.-19.02.2012. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 37 63 100 9999.0 7.5 11.5 117.3 69.2 61.8 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 82 18 100 5.8 9.2 11.6 117.5 69.6 62.0 1.9 4.3 8.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 36 64 100 14.0 12.8 11.2 113.6 68.2 60.9 3.2 6.7 11.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 81 19 100 12.3 16.8 12.4 119.6 69.9 60.9 6.5 10.3 15.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 81 19 100 12.3 16.6 12.1 115.5 68.4 59.5 5.9 10.1 15.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 8.8 12.4 12.8 126.0 71.5 60.0 4.3 7.2 10.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 80 20 100 5.5 8.3 11.6 118.2 69.6 61.4 2.0 4.1 7.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 83 17 100 18.3 22.3 13.0 115.7 68.4 60.0 12.4 16.7 21.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 81 19 100 9.8 12.9 12.0 111.8 67.0 58.0 4.3 7.8 12.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 82 18 100 11.6 15.3 12.6 111.7 66.9 58.4 5.4 9.6 15.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 81 19 100 9.1 13.2 11.6 118.0 69.1 60.0 3.8 7.2 12.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 82 18 100 10.6 14.7 11.5 117.9 69.1 59.9 5.1 8.8 13.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 11.3 15.3 12.3 120.0 69.6 59.5 5.5 9.1 13.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 81 19 100 11.4 15.0 13.2 110.1 66.7 58.4 4.9 9.1 14.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 81 19 100 9.3 14.7 11.8 124.7 71.6 61.0 3.6 7.2 12.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 81 19 100 8.2 12.2 12.0 122.1 70.4 60.5 3.6 6.5 10.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 81 19 100 5.5 8.9 11.7 123.8 71.5 62.4 2.0 4.2 7.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 81 19 100 11.5 14.8 14.0 108.8 66.1 57.8 5.1 9.3 14.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 41 59 100 10.6 10.4 11.5 114.7 68.9 61.6 2.8 5.6 9.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 41 59 100 15.9 15.6 18.3 115.5 68.5 61.0 5.7 9.7 14.7 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 9.3 13.0 11.7 116.2 68.6 60.1 3.6 7.0 12.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 83 17 100 6.5 10.5 12.4 125.7 71.9 63.4 2.8 5.3 8.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 36 64 100 10.3 9.5 11.7 112.0 67.9 60.7 2.8 5.4 8.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 80 20 100 10.4 13.5 12.5 109.9 66.6 58.1 4.3 8.1 13.3 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 41 59 100 14.1 14.0 13.3 117.3 69.2 62.5 3.7 7.4 12.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 80 20 100 8.2 11.6 12.7 121.8 70.5 61.1 3.9 6.7 10.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 39 61 100 11.5 11.0 12.7 115.9 68.7 62.1 2.9 5.8 10.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 82 18 100 9.5 15.3 11.8 122.5 70.8 60.2 3.3 7.2 13.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 81 19 100 18.8 24.0 15.7 111.5 67.1 58.9 9.9 15.9 23.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 41 59 100 10.4 10.2 11.4 115.4 68.9 61.8 2.6 5.2 9.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------