***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 19.01.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 23.01.2017.-29.01.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 83 17 0 100 -6.3 -6.1 -6.4 -2.9 21.9 23.1 -4.7 -2.9 -1.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 98 2 0 100 -7.2 -9.7 -8.7 -5.4 5.6 7.8 -5.0 -3.2 -1.6 30 Becej 27400G00 97 3 0 100 -4.8 -7.1 -8.9 -5.7 5.7 7.8 -2.9 -1.2 0.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 85 15 0 100 -10.4 -10.7 -9.9 -3.8 18.2 20.4 -8.7 -6.7 -4.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 91 9 0 100 -6.9 -7.6 -9.8 -4.5 14.3 16.7 -5.0 -3.1 -1.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 86 14 0 100 -7.8 -8.5 -12.3 -4.6 15.7 17.9 -6.1 -4.3 -2.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 91 9 0 100 -6.7 -7.6 -7.1 -3.7 13.1 15.3 -4.8 -3.0 -1.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 86 14 0 100 -11.4 -11.9 -11.2 -4.2 16.5 19.0 -9.8 -8.1 -6.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 96 4 0 100 -6.4 -7.4 -10.2 -4.9 11.9 14.3 -4.3 -2.4 -0.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 88 12 0 100 -6.3 -7.0 -11.1 -4.6 14.7 17.3 -4.6 -2.9 -1.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 93 7 0 100 -7.0 -8.2 -11.2 -5.4 11.2 14.0 -4.9 -3.1 -1.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 94 6 0 100 -7.5 -8.4 -11.4 -5.0 12.8 15.1 -5.4 -3.5 -1.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 98 2 0 100 -7.0 -8.6 -12.6 -6.2 8.5 11.2 -4.8 -3.0 -1.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 98 2 0 100 -5.8 -8.9 -12.1 -7.2 3.4 5.9 -3.9 -2.3 -0.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 90 10 0 100 -7.1 -8.6 -10.0 -5.2 10.8 14.1 -5.2 -3.3 -1.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 95 5 0 100 -6.1 -7.3 -12.1 -5.7 10.6 13.3 -4.1 -2.4 -0.8 30 Nis 06700G01 98 2 0 100 -6.8 -9.5 -9.1 -5.6 4.3 6.9 -4.8 -3.2 -1.7 30 Palic 37000G16 92 8 0 100 -8.0 -9.2 -12.0 -5.3 10.8 13.7 -6.2 -4.5 -3.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 100 0 0 100 -7.2 -11.5 -10.3 -7.0 2.1 3.9 -4.9 -3.1 -1.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 78 22 0 100 -11.8 -12.0 -11.4 -3.5 20.4 22.8 -10.0 -7.7 -5.5 29 Sjenica 27900G10 96 4 0 100 -6.5 -7.5 -8.8 -4.8 11.5 13.4 -4.4 -2.6 -0.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 100 0 0 100 -7.0 -12.9 -11.5 -8.2 0.5 1.8 -4.9 -3.3 -1.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 100 0 0 100 -6.7 -12.2 -11.8 -8.3 0.7 2.0 -4.6 -3.0 -1.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 97 3 0 100 -6.8 -9.7 -11.9 -6.8 4.3 6.9 -4.8 -3.1 -1.6 29 Valjevo 28500G11 70 30 0 100 -5.7 -5.8 -7.5 -3.2 23.3 24.9 -4.8 -3.1 -1.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 95 5 0 100 -6.8 -7.4 -11.3 -4.9 13.4 15.5 -4.8 -3.1 -1.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 68 32 0 100 -6.1 -5.9 -6.4 -2.6 26.5 27.5 -5.0 -3.0 -1.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 86 14 0 100 -7.9 -8.8 -10.5 -4.7 14.4 17.2 -6.1 -4.2 -2.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 92 8 0 100 -9.3 -10.4 -12.8 -5.1 12.1 14.6 -7.3 -5.5 -3.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 95 5 0 100 -6.7 -8.0 -7.7 -4.5 10.6 12.6 -4.7 -2.9 -1.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------