***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 19.01.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 23.01.2017.-29.01.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 71 29 0 100 0.5 0.6 0.8 -2.4 24.8 26.5 1.7 3.6 5.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 89 11 0 100 -0.2 -1.1 -0.1 -3.6 13.7 16.1 1.6 3.5 5.2 30 Becej 27400G00 89 11 0 100 0.2 -0.6 -0.3 -3.8 14.8 17.2 2.3 4.5 6.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 83 17 0 100 -4.1 -4.3 -3.5 -3.6 19.4 21.5 -2.4 -0.4 1.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 83 17 0 100 0.9 0.6 -1.8 -3.4 18.6 20.8 2.6 4.6 6.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 83 17 0 100 0.7 0.5 -2.9 -3.5 18.8 21.1 2.2 3.9 5.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 78 22 0 100 -0.3 -0.3 0.8 -2.5 21.8 24.0 1.1 3.0 4.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 69 31 0 100 -3.9 -4.1 -1.7 -2.9 22.5 25.3 -3.0 -1.5 -0.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 82 18 0 100 1.3 0.9 -0.6 -3.3 18.6 21.2 3.0 5.0 6.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 71 29 0 100 1.4 1.0 -1.3 -3.1 21.6 24.4 2.5 4.4 6.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 83 17 0 100 1.0 0.7 -1.4 -3.5 18.5 20.7 2.7 4.7 6.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 82 18 0 100 0.9 0.6 -1.9 -3.3 18.8 21.4 2.6 4.6 6.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 85 15 0 100 1.1 0.5 -1.7 -3.8 16.6 19.2 2.8 4.6 6.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 87 13 0 100 0.4 -0.8 -1.1 -4.3 13.9 17.1 2.7 5.1 7.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 87 13 0 100 -0.2 -0.8 -2.3 -4.1 16.2 18.6 1.7 3.7 5.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 86 14 0 100 1.3 0.8 -2.4 -3.8 16.9 19.2 3.2 5.2 7.1 30 Nis 06700G01 90 10 0 100 -0.4 -1.4 -0.5 -3.6 12.3 15.0 1.3 3.0 4.6 30 Palic 37000G16 63 37 0 100 1.1 0.8 -1.3 -2.8 24.0 27.0 1.7 3.2 4.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 96 4 0 100 -0.9 -3.0 -1.2 -4.8 8.3 10.3 1.6 3.7 5.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 75 25 100 2.5 -0.6 -1.6 -2.0 30.5 33.1 -0.3 1.6 3.4 29 Sjenica 27900G10 83 17 0 100 1.2 0.7 0.0 -3.4 17.9 20.3 2.8 4.8 6.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 99 1 0 100 -0.4 -3.4 -1.9 -5.3 4.7 6.9 1.9 3.8 5.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 99 1 0 100 -0.7 -3.4 -2.1 -5.6 5.5 7.4 1.7 3.6 5.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 80 20 0 100 1.0 0.2 -0.7 -3.7 16.8 19.8 2.7 4.8 6.8 29 Valjevo 28500G11 69 31 0 100 0.9 0.9 -0.5 -2.6 24.6 26.4 1.8 3.5 5.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 87 13 0 100 1.3 1.1 -2.4 -3.5 17.3 19.6 2.7 4.2 5.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 60 40 0 100 1.4 1.5 0.8 -2.0 28.3 29.9 2.1 4.0 5.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 83 17 0 100 0.6 0.0 -3.0 -4.0 17.6 20.0 2.5 4.6 6.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 56 44 0 100 -0.8 -1.1 -1.3 -2.4 26.8 29.6 -0.3 1.6 3.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 84 16 0 100 -0.4 -0.7 0.3 -3.2 17.9 19.9 1.3 3.2 5.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------