***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 19.01.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 06.02.2017.-12.02.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 84 16 100 7.4 7.9 6.2 0.9 58.2 57.7 4.4 6.8 9.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 83 17 100 7.0 7.3 6.1 0.8 57.4 57.1 4.1 6.3 8.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 82 18 100 8.1 8.0 6.4 0.6 55.2 55.0 5.2 7.4 9.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 81 19 100 1.8 0.7 2.4 -0.3 46.9 47.9 -1.1 1.1 3.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 80 20 100 8.1 7.8 4.2 0.3 53.1 53.1 5.2 7.4 9.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 80 20 100 7.2 6.7 3.0 0.2 51.9 52.3 4.6 6.5 8.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 83 17 100 6.5 6.9 6.2 0.9 58.4 57.9 3.6 5.8 8.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 -0.3 -0.3 4.0 0.6 55.8 55.5 -2.1 -0.8 0.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 81 19 100 8.6 8.6 5.4 0.6 55.6 55.2 5.7 7.9 9.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 8.3 8.2 4.7 0.6 55.8 55.3 5.3 7.5 9.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 8.3 7.9 4.2 0.4 53.4 53.4 5.3 7.5 9.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 80 20 100 8.0 7.7 4.1 0.4 53.6 53.9 5.3 7.3 9.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 83 17 100 8.0 7.9 3.5 0.4 54.1 54.3 5.3 7.4 9.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 8.9 7.9 5.1 0.0 49.7 50.3 5.5 7.9 10.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 79 21 100 7.0 5.7 2.9 -0.4 46.4 47.2 3.9 6.2 8.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 81 19 100 8.5 8.0 3.6 0.1 51.2 51.7 5.7 7.8 9.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 82 18 100 6.5 6.7 6.1 0.7 56.9 56.6 3.9 5.9 7.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 7.6 7.6 4.8 0.7 55.9 55.4 4.9 6.9 8.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 82 18 100 7.2 7.2 6.2 0.6 55.6 55.4 4.1 6.4 8.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 82 18 100 3.9 4.4 3.1 1.0 59.7 58.6 1.5 3.4 5.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 81 19 100 8.2 8.2 5.8 0.6 55.2 54.9 5.4 7.5 9.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 80 20 100 7.4 7.1 5.9 0.4 53.7 54.0 4.4 6.6 8.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 7.7 7.1 6.2 0.3 52.7 52.9 4.4 6.8 9.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 8.9 8.3 5.4 0.3 52.9 53.0 5.7 8.0 10.1 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 83 17 100 7.0 7.2 4.4 0.7 56.8 56.3 4.4 6.4 8.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 83 17 100 7.5 7.7 3.7 0.7 57.5 57.0 5.3 7.0 8.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 84 16 100 7.6 8.1 5.7 1.0 59.3 58.6 4.9 7.0 8.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 79 21 100 8.2 6.5 2.4 -0.6 44.5 45.8 4.8 7.3 9.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 4.2 4.2 4.2 0.7 56.8 56.2 1.7 3.5 5.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 83 17 100 7.0 7.3 6.1 0.8 57.7 57.3 4.0 6.3 8.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------