***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 19.01.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 13.02.2017.-19.02.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 81 19 100 6.3 7.1 6.9 1.3 62.1 59.5 3.8 5.7 7.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 81 19 100 5.7 6.4 6.9 1.2 61.5 59.1 2.9 5.0 7.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 81 19 100 6.3 6.8 7.2 1.1 60.6 58.1 3.4 5.5 7.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 -0.3 -0.9 3.2 0.1 51.2 51.0 -3.0 -1.0 0.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 80 20 100 6.2 6.3 4.9 0.8 57.0 55.4 3.4 5.5 7.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 80 20 100 5.5 5.5 3.6 0.7 56.5 55.1 2.9 4.8 6.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 81 19 100 5.3 6.0 6.9 1.2 61.9 59.4 2.5 4.6 6.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 -2.2 -1.9 4.4 0.9 59.0 57.8 -4.5 -2.8 -1.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 81 19 100 6.4 6.8 5.9 1.0 59.3 57.1 3.5 5.7 7.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 80 20 100 6.4 6.8 5.1 1.1 59.6 57.7 3.6 5.7 7.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 80 20 100 6.6 6.8 5.0 0.8 57.9 56.6 3.7 5.9 7.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 80 20 100 6.0 6.2 4.8 0.8 58.0 57.1 3.3 5.3 7.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 80 20 100 6.5 6.7 4.1 0.8 57.6 56.7 3.8 5.8 7.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 6.7 6.6 5.9 0.7 56.4 54.8 3.7 5.8 7.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 5.9 5.2 3.9 0.2 51.5 51.6 3.0 5.0 6.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 80 20 100 7.0 6.9 4.3 0.6 55.6 54.8 4.2 6.3 8.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 80 20 100 5.3 5.9 6.9 1.1 61.2 58.7 2.7 4.7 6.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 5.8 6.2 5.1 1.1 59.6 57.6 3.0 5.1 6.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 80 20 100 5.7 6.4 7.0 1.2 61.0 58.6 2.7 5.0 7.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 36 64 100 4.0 3.1 3.2 1.2 61.1 59.4 0.0 1.9 3.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 81 19 100 6.3 6.7 6.5 1.0 59.6 57.2 3.5 5.6 7.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 5.9 6.3 6.9 1.0 59.9 57.8 3.0 5.1 7.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 6.0 6.4 7.1 1.1 59.8 57.5 2.9 5.1 7.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 6.6 6.7 6.1 0.9 58.3 56.3 3.6 5.7 7.7 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 82 18 100 5.4 6.0 5.1 1.1 60.2 57.8 2.8 4.8 6.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 6.3 6.6 4.1 0.9 59.2 57.7 3.6 5.6 7.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 82 18 100 5.9 6.7 6.3 1.3 62.4 59.7 3.1 5.2 7.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 6.4 5.4 3.3 -0.1 49.3 49.6 3.4 5.5 7.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 2.3 2.7 4.5 1.1 59.8 58.2 -0.6 1.5 3.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 81 19 100 5.5 6.2 6.9 1.2 61.7 59.3 2.7 4.8 6.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------