***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 19.01.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 23.01.2017.-19.02.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 84 16 100 5.5 5.8 5.1 0.6 57.9 57.0 3.4 5.1 6.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 86 14 100 5.2 5.0 4.8 0.1 52.0 51.8 3.3 4.8 6.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 85 15 100 6.2 5.8 5.0 0.0 50.2 50.3 4.1 5.7 7.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 81 19 100 0.2 -0.9 1.1 -0.7 41.5 42.6 -1.7 -0.3 1.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 83 17 100 6.1 5.5 3.0 -0.1 48.3 48.8 4.1 5.6 7.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 81 19 100 5.3 4.7 1.8 -0.2 47.6 48.1 3.6 4.9 6.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 87 13 100 4.7 5.0 5.1 0.5 57.2 56.4 2.8 4.4 5.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 81 19 100 -1.3 -1.4 2.8 0.3 54.3 53.6 -2.7 -1.7 -0.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 83 17 100 6.6 6.3 4.2 0.2 52.3 52.1 4.6 6.1 7.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 81 19 100 6.3 6.2 3.5 0.3 54.7 54.0 4.3 5.8 7.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 82 18 100 6.4 5.7 3.1 -0.2 47.6 48.2 4.4 5.9 7.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 80 20 100 6.2 5.6 2.9 -0.1 48.6 48.9 4.3 5.7 7.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 6.3 5.6 2.6 -0.2 47.0 47.6 4.4 5.8 7.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 82 18 100 6.8 5.8 4.0 -0.5 44.1 44.9 4.7 6.3 7.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 5.6 3.9 1.8 -1.1 37.3 38.9 3.5 5.0 6.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 81 19 100 6.7 5.7 2.3 -0.4 44.3 45.3 4.8 6.2 7.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 86 14 100 4.8 4.5 4.6 0.0 50.4 50.2 3.0 4.5 5.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 5.4 5.4 3.6 0.5 57.0 55.7 3.7 4.9 6.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 85 15 100 5.4 4.5 4.5 -0.3 45.4 46.0 3.3 5.0 6.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 81 19 100 2.6 3.1 2.3 0.8 62.8 60.5 0.9 2.2 3.3 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 83 17 100 6.3 6.0 4.7 0.1 52.0 51.9 4.4 5.9 7.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 82 18 100 5.6 4.2 4.0 -0.8 39.6 40.8 3.5 5.1 6.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 82 18 100 5.7 4.2 4.2 -0.8 39.0 40.4 3.6 5.2 6.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 81 19 100 6.7 6.1 4.3 0.0 49.5 49.5 4.7 6.2 7.6 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 83 17 100 5.1 5.2 3.6 0.4 55.9 55.2 3.3 4.7 6.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 81 19 100 5.8 5.4 2.2 0.0 49.6 49.8 4.3 5.4 6.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 84 16 100 5.6 6.1 4.8 0.8 60.9 59.6 3.7 5.2 6.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 79 21 100 6.4 4.7 1.3 -1.0 37.7 39.3 4.3 5.8 7.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 80 20 100 2.7 2.9 3.2 0.6 59.0 57.4 0.9 2.2 3.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 86 14 100 5.0 5.0 4.9 0.3 54.1 53.7 3.1 4.7 6.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------