***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 19.01.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 23.01.2017.-29.01.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 86 14 0 100 1.8 1.1 1.8 16.6 15.5 14.0 3.1 6.0 10.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 88 12 0 100 1.4 0.8 1.4 14.4 15.0 12.4 2.5 5.2 8.9 30 Becej 27400G00 82 18 0 100 2.3 1.4 2.2 19.0 17.6 15.7 3.5 7.1 12.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 83 17 0 100 2.0 2.0 3.9 24.6 24.0 19.7 3.2 6.4 11.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 72 28 0 100 3.0 2.6 4.3 30.3 25.2 22.3 3.8 7.0 11.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 75 25 0 100 3.1 3.8 5.2 40.1 30.9 25.9 4.2 7.8 12.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 89 11 0 100 1.3 0.8 1.4 14.6 15.2 12.4 2.5 5.1 8.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 82 18 0 100 3.6 3.6 4.9 30.8 23.7 20.6 5.4 9.3 14.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 76 24 0 100 1.9 1.4 3.6 26.7 22.5 19.7 2.6 5.6 10.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 77 23 0 100 2.2 1.7 4.8 29.9 22.5 20.3 3.1 6.3 11.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 77 23 0 100 2.3 2.3 5.0 34.0 27.1 23.0 3.1 6.1 10.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 80 20 0 100 1.9 2.1 4.9 34.5 27.9 23.3 2.8 6.0 10.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 70 30 0 100 2.8 3.1 6.5 43.2 31.9 27.6 3.3 6.9 12.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 81 19 0 100 3.0 1.8 3.2 20.9 17.8 16.2 4.6 9.3 16.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 91 9 0 100 1.2 1.6 3.2 21.0 24.1 18.0 2.6 5.8 10.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 78 22 0 100 2.4 2.7 5.1 35.6 28.2 24.0 3.4 6.6 11.0 30 Nis 06700G01 88 12 0 100 1.4 0.8 1.3 14.9 15.8 12.6 2.5 5.0 8.5 30 Palic 37000G16 76 24 0 100 2.3 1.4 4.3 26.9 19.9 18.6 3.0 6.3 11.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 86 14 0 100 1.6 0.9 1.6 15.7 16.0 13.4 2.9 5.8 10.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 79 21 0 100 2.3 1.5 5.0 27.3 19.6 18.3 3.4 6.9 12.2 29 Sjenica 27900G10 83 17 0 100 1.9 1.3 2.8 21.5 19.5 17.3 3.0 6.1 10.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 85 15 0 100 1.5 1.0 1.6 16.0 17.4 13.9 2.6 5.3 9.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 85 15 0 100 1.5 0.9 2.0 17.9 17.0 14.6 2.6 5.3 9.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 80 20 0 100 2.6 1.8 3.4 23.5 19.0 17.5 4.0 7.8 13.4 29 Valjevo 28500G11 81 19 0 100 2.5 1.6 2.7 20.3 18.2 16.5 3.9 7.6 12.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 68 32 0 100 3.1 3.6 5.8 41.6 33.0 27.8 3.6 6.9 11.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 85 15 0 100 1.7 1.0 2.0 17.6 16.2 14.5 3.0 6.3 11.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 86 14 0 100 1.5 1.8 3.9 26.0 25.8 20.3 2.7 5.6 9.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 80 20 0 100 3.4 2.2 4.3 25.9 18.7 17.8 5.1 10.1 17.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 88 12 0 100 1.4 0.9 1.5 14.5 15.4 12.9 2.7 5.5 9.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------