***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 19.01.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 30.01.2017.-05.02.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 53 47 0 100 1.4 2.6 7.7 74.8 50.9 41.3 1.3 2.5 4.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 53 47 0 100 1.7 3.7 7.7 92.4 60.0 45.9 1.7 2.8 4.4 30 Becej 27400G00 52 48 0 100 2.2 4.0 7.2 72.9 50.4 40.5 2.0 3.9 6.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 53 47 0 100 4.0 6.9 8.1 73.3 51.4 41.1 3.8 6.6 10.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 52 48 0 100 3.7 6.2 8.3 72.0 49.7 39.8 3.4 6.3 10.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 61 39 0 100 2.8 4.9 7.7 69.0 47.1 38.3 3.0 5.3 8.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 52 48 0 100 2.0 4.2 7.5 92.4 59.8 45.8 1.9 3.2 5.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 56 44 0 100 5.6 8.9 8.1 66.7 46.2 37.4 5.5 10.1 16.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 52 48 0 100 2.6 4.2 8.1 70.0 49.0 39.3 2.5 4.3 6.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 54 46 0 100 3.0 4.8 8.2 68.8 47.8 38.4 2.8 5.2 8.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 51 49 0 100 3.3 4.5 7.6 65.1 45.0 36.7 3.1 5.3 8.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 55 45 0 100 3.0 4.5 7.3 64.2 44.9 36.5 3.0 5.3 8.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 58 42 0 100 3.3 5.7 7.9 67.3 47.5 37.2 3.3 6.2 10.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 56 44 0 100 2.7 5.1 9.2 74.1 51.2 40.4 2.5 4.9 8.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 6.1 5.2 7.7 80.5 56.9 45.2 1.5 4.0 7.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 54 46 0 100 3.1 4.8 7.8 67.5 47.2 38.0 3.1 5.2 8.0 30 Nis 06700G01 55 45 0 100 1.8 4.5 7.8 98.7 62.5 47.3 1.7 3.1 5.0 30 Palic 37000G16 56 44 0 100 3.2 5.1 9.0 71.1 47.8 38.7 3.2 5.5 8.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 51 49 0 100 1.8 3.8 7.7 87.6 57.7 44.5 1.7 3.1 4.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 55 45 0 100 2.5 4.7 11.5 73.8 49.8 40.2 2.2 4.7 8.4 29 Sjenica 27900G10 58 42 0 100 2.5 4.3 7.8 71.3 49.4 39.6 2.5 4.4 6.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 56 44 0 100 1.5 4.4 8.6 102.2 63.7 48.2 1.5 2.8 4.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 3.7 3.0 7.5 76.3 52.2 41.1 1.5 2.8 4.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 55 45 0 100 3.7 6.0 8.4 71.4 48.9 39.3 3.8 6.2 9.3 29 Valjevo 28500G11 58 42 0 100 2.4 4.8 8.7 74.3 51.0 41.2 2.3 4.6 8.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 53 47 0 100 2.9 4.6 7.7 69.1 47.1 38.0 2.6 5.2 9.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 56 44 0 100 2.5 4.4 8.2 75.8 51.7 41.8 2.5 4.2 6.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 53 47 0 100 2.1 4.0 7.5 72.4 51.9 41.4 1.9 3.7 6.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 55 45 0 100 4.7 8.0 10.3 74.2 49.1 39.8 4.6 8.2 13.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 51 49 0 100 1.8 3.3 7.5 85.6 57.1 44.3 1.8 2.8 4.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------