***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 19.01.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 06.02.2017.-12.02.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 59 41 0 100 2.3 5.2 8.5 80.5 54.8 41.9 2.3 4.4 7.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 57 43 0 100 2.6 6.2 7.3 81.3 56.4 42.6 2.4 5.0 8.7 30 Becej 27400G00 58 42 0 100 3.6 8.7 8.7 85.3 57.1 43.9 3.5 6.9 11.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 60 40 0 100 3.9 9.3 9.0 82.3 55.8 42.2 3.9 7.6 12.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 58 42 0 100 4.5 8.9 9.1 80.4 53.1 41.6 4.6 8.1 12.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 56 44 0 100 3.7 6.5 8.7 77.6 52.3 41.5 3.7 6.1 9.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 59 41 0 100 2.3 5.3 7.0 78.2 55.0 41.2 2.2 4.4 7.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 59 41 0 100 5.8 13.5 10.6 91.1 57.8 44.4 6.0 10.8 17.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 60 40 0 100 3.3 7.1 10.0 82.1 53.3 42.7 3.4 6.4 10.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 59 41 0 100 4.4 10.2 10.8 87.9 55.9 43.9 4.4 8.5 13.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 57 43 0 100 3.9 8.2 9.1 82.6 54.4 42.2 3.9 7.2 11.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 58 42 0 100 3.3 7.3 9.0 85.3 55.7 43.2 3.2 6.1 10.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 59 41 0 100 3.5 7.0 9.1 77.7 52.0 41.4 3.5 6.5 10.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 55 45 0 100 4.4 9.3 10.4 81.7 54.1 43.4 4.1 8.1 13.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 62 38 0 100 3.0 9.9 9.5 93.8 62.5 45.6 3.0 6.3 11.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 60 40 0 100 3.1 6.4 8.8 78.8 53.1 41.4 3.2 5.9 9.5 30 Nis 06700G01 57 43 0 100 3.2 7.0 7.1 79.2 55.1 42.0 3.2 5.9 9.7 30 Palic 37000G16 62 38 0 100 3.7 8.7 11.9 90.9 57.2 45.2 4.0 7.1 11.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 58 42 0 100 3.3 7.8 7.5 82.4 56.8 43.3 3.2 6.2 10.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 57 43 0 100 3.9 9.7 15.1 97.4 60.6 46.3 4.0 7.0 11.4 29 Sjenica 27900G10 60 40 0 100 3.5 8.1 9.3 82.0 54.0 42.9 3.6 7.0 12.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 57 43 0 100 3.2 7.4 7.7 85.4 57.8 44.3 3.1 5.9 9.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 58 42 0 100 3.1 7.2 8.2 82.5 56.3 43.5 3.0 5.9 10.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 59 41 0 100 4.4 10.0 10.3 85.7 56.0 44.2 4.4 8.3 13.7 29 Valjevo 28500G11 60 40 0 100 3.7 7.8 9.2 76.7 52.2 40.8 3.8 7.3 12.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 54 46 0 100 2.6 6.2 9.3 88.6 58.4 45.8 2.4 4.7 7.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 60 40 0 100 3.9 7.9 8.6 76.5 52.6 40.8 3.9 7.4 11.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 62 38 0 100 2.7 7.5 8.8 85.0 57.6 43.1 2.8 5.8 10.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 59 41 0 100 5.3 12.9 12.6 90.8 57.1 44.9 5.4 10.3 17.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 57 43 0 100 2.8 6.7 7.7 83.7 57.5 43.3 2.7 5.2 8.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------