***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 19.01.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 13.02.2017.-19.02.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 52 48 0 100 3.7 9.2 9.9 95.7 61.3 51.0 3.4 6.4 10.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 6.2 6.4 8.5 91.7 60.2 49.2 1.9 4.3 8.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 9.5 10.7 10.6 100.7 63.2 53.0 3.2 6.7 11.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 51 49 0 100 6.7 13.1 11.0 89.0 59.9 49.6 6.5 10.3 15.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 54 46 0 100 6.1 13.8 12.1 95.4 61.4 51.2 5.9 10.1 15.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 56 44 0 100 4.3 9.5 12.5 94.5 60.8 47.9 4.3 7.2 10.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 5.7 5.8 8.2 88.6 59.2 47.7 2.0 4.1 7.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 75 25 100 19.1 19.7 12.9 94.2 60.6 50.9 12.4 16.7 21.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 51 49 0 100 4.7 11.2 13.0 98.3 62.1 52.3 4.3 7.8 12.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 52 48 0 100 5.8 13.5 13.8 98.9 62.2 52.5 5.4 9.6 15.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 55 45 0 100 4.0 10.6 12.2 97.7 62.1 50.9 3.8 7.2 12.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 54 46 0 100 5.3 11.4 11.5 92.1 59.9 49.1 5.1 8.8 13.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 56 44 0 100 5.5 11.5 12.0 89.2 58.4 47.2 5.5 9.1 13.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 11.8 12.9 13.2 96.0 61.4 53.3 4.9 9.1 14.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 9.7 11.2 11.0 95.7 63.3 49.7 3.6 7.2 12.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 57 43 0 100 3.6 9.1 11.8 93.1 60.5 48.5 3.6 6.5 10.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 5.9 5.2 7.5 81.2 56.4 45.2 2.0 4.2 7.4 30 Palic 37000G16 51 49 0 100 5.6 13.2 14.5 99.1 62.2 53.4 5.1 9.3 14.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 7.5 8.1 9.2 95.2 61.3 51.1 2.8 5.6 9.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 12.2 12.2 16.3 91.2 59.2 51.2 5.7 9.7 14.7 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 75 25 100 9.7 10.7 11.7 99.4 62.6 52.7 3.6 7.0 12.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 7.1 6.7 8.4 84.6 57.5 47.4 2.8 5.3 8.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 7.1 7.8 10.2 95.7 61.5 52.2 2.8 5.4 8.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 75 25 100 10.9 12.1 13.0 100.3 62.9 53.8 4.3 8.1 13.3 29 Valjevo 28500G11 55 45 0 100 4.0 10.3 11.0 92.0 60.1 50.5 3.7 7.4 12.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 53 47 0 100 4.1 9.0 11.9 93.2 60.7 49.6 3.9 6.7 10.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 53 47 0 100 3.2 8.3 10.1 92.8 60.2 49.9 2.9 5.8 10.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 75 25 100 10.4 10.9 11.1 91.8 61.1 48.9 3.3 7.2 13.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 75 25 100 19.8 20.9 15.1 96.1 61.0 52.8 9.9 15.9 23.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 7.2 7.9 9.0 94.8 61.3 50.5 2.6 5.2 9.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------