***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 19.01.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 23.01.2017.-19.02.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 70 30 0 100 13.6 14.3 27.9 66.4 28.7 30.6 16.3 24.8 35.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 62 38 0 100 16.1 17.7 24.9 68.7 33.3 33.2 17.6 25.1 33.6 30 Becej 27400G00 65 35 0 100 20.2 21.5 28.7 68.1 30.6 31.7 22.7 33.9 47.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 60 40 0 100 25.9 25.6 32.0 63.8 29.5 30.4 27.7 39.2 52.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 67 33 0 100 25.6 27.0 33.9 68.0 29.4 31.1 29.2 40.3 53.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 65 35 0 100 20.3 21.4 34.1 70.3 30.5 32.0 22.8 32.2 43.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 60 40 0 100 15.1 16.0 24.0 67.5 32.5 32.2 16.3 23.4 31.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 63 37 0 100 43.1 42.8 36.5 68.3 27.8 30.7 46.7 59.1 72.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 68 32 0 100 20.9 22.0 34.7 68.8 29.1 31.2 23.9 33.0 43.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 66 34 0 100 27.5 28.2 37.6 69.6 28.5 31.1 30.8 41.0 52.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 61 39 0 100 22.1 21.9 33.9 67.9 29.2 31.1 23.9 33.9 45.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 62 38 0 100 18.6 17.3 32.7 67.3 28.1 30.7 20.4 31.6 45.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 66 34 0 100 24.4 24.7 35.6 68.3 28.4 30.7 27.6 38.2 50.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 65 35 0 100 30.9 30.1 35.9 66.6 26.3 29.1 34.3 45.6 58.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 56 44 0 100 18.5 21.9 31.5 67.5 37.7 35.7 18.8 30.6 46.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 64 36 0 100 19.9 20.3 33.5 67.6 29.4 31.3 22.1 31.3 42.0 30 Nis 06700G01 62 38 0 100 15.8 17.5 23.8 67.8 33.4 32.8 17.4 24.7 33.6 30 Palic 37000G16 64 36 0 100 26.0 26.1 39.7 70.4 28.4 31.2 28.6 38.1 48.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 63 37 0 100 17.8 19.4 26.0 68.8 32.7 33.0 19.6 28.3 38.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 58 42 0 100 26.2 25.6 48.0 71.0 29.3 31.5 27.6 38.3 50.6 29 Sjenica 27900G10 66 34 0 100 22.1 22.4 31.6 67.5 28.6 30.8 24.9 34.3 45.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 55 45 0 100 17.3 18.9 26.2 70.6 35.6 34.9 17.7 25.8 35.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 67 33 0 100 16.2 17.1 28.0 67.0 29.7 31.0 18.6 26.6 36.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 66 34 0 100 27.8 28.3 35.1 68.6 28.4 30.8 31.0 41.7 53.7 29 Valjevo 28500G11 69 31 0 100 21.1 20.8 31.6 64.4 26.2 29.1 24.8 36.4 50.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 55 45 0 100 20.4 20.8 34.7 71.7 32.7 34.3 20.9 30.4 41.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 71 29 0 100 17.5 17.5 28.9 65.0 26.7 29.5 21.1 31.2 43.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 58 42 0 100 16.4 16.6 31.3 65.3 32.6 32.5 16.9 28.2 42.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 64 36 0 100 43.0 42.9 42.4 70.4 27.8 30.8 46.8 60.4 75.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 62 38 0 100 16.2 17.5 25.7 68.4 32.8 32.9 17.7 25.6 34.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------