***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 21.01.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 25.01.2016.-31.01.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 43 57 100 -1.3 -1.9 -2.1 1.0 61.1 60.5 -5.1 -3.2 -1.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 33 67 100 -1.3 -1.4 -1.7 1.7 69.2 67.7 -5.5 -3.6 -1.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 38 62 100 0.6 0.1 -2.0 1.3 64.0 63.5 -2.9 -1.2 0.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 34 66 100 -4.9 -5.7 -5.2 1.2 61.5 61.2 -8.5 -6.8 -5.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 80 20 100 -2.8 -3.0 -5.2 0.4 53.4 54.9 -5.2 -3.4 -1.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 83 17 100 -4.0 -4.9 -7.9 -0.5 45.7 47.8 -6.2 -4.5 -2.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 35 65 100 -1.1 -1.4 -2.0 1.3 66.3 65.1 -5.1 -3.2 -1.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 43 57 100 -6.8 -7.3 -5.7 1.4 62.3 62.1 -10.0 -8.4 -6.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 82 18 100 -2.1 -2.2 -4.6 0.5 54.2 55.6 -4.5 -2.7 -0.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 82 18 100 -2.6 -2.1 -5.2 1.2 60.4 60.6 -4.8 -3.1 -1.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 82 18 100 -2.8 -3.0 -5.5 0.3 53.1 54.6 -5.2 -3.3 -1.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 83 17 100 -3.4 -3.0 -5.3 1.0 58.5 58.9 -5.7 -3.9 -2.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 83 17 100 -2.8 -4.0 -6.8 -0.7 43.4 46.4 -5.1 -3.3 -1.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 15 85 100 0.1 0.5 -2.1 3.3 77.8 76.5 -4.0 -2.3 -0.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 -2.4 -2.7 -4.7 0.4 53.9 54.9 -4.8 -3.1 -1.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 83 17 100 -2.2 -3.2 -6.7 -0.5 45.3 48.2 -4.4 -2.7 -1.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 28 72 100 -1.2 -1.1 -1.6 1.8 71.9 70.0 -5.1 -3.4 -1.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 33 67 100 -2.8 -3.2 -5.1 1.9 66.1 65.4 -6.6 -4.9 -3.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 31 69 100 -1.0 -1.0 -1.6 1.8 69.9 68.5 -5.1 -3.2 -1.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 44 56 100 -6.2 -6.7 -7.0 1.5 62.8 62.3 -10.4 -8.2 -6.3 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 41 59 100 -1.1 -1.8 -2.7 1.0 60.4 60.6 -4.8 -2.9 -1.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 24 76 100 -1.1 -0.8 -1.4 2.2 74.8 73.0 -5.3 -3.5 -1.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 29 71 100 -1.0 -1.1 -1.8 2.0 70.3 69.2 -5.1 -3.3 -1.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 28 72 100 -1.3 -1.5 -3.2 2.2 69.2 68.3 -5.0 -3.4 -1.8 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 38 62 100 -1.5 -2.3 -3.2 1.0 61.1 60.6 -5.2 -3.4 -1.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 82 18 100 -3.0 -3.0 -5.7 0.6 55.4 55.7 -5.0 -3.5 -2.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 43 57 100 -1.2 -2.0 -2.7 1.0 60.6 60.2 -5.4 -3.3 -1.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 79 21 100 -3.6 -3.9 -5.6 0.3 53.1 54.6 -6.0 -4.2 -2.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 83 17 100 -5.3 -4.8 -6.7 1.2 60.0 59.9 -7.5 -5.8 -4.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 36 64 100 -1.0 -1.3 -1.8 1.4 66.2 65.0 -4.9 -3.0 -1.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------