***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 21.01.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 25.01.2016.-31.01.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 40 60 100 5.8 5.4 4.2 1.3 64.9 63.4 1.7 3.7 5.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 33 67 100 5.8 6.1 5.0 2.1 72.1 69.8 1.8 3.7 5.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 33 67 100 7.2 7.5 5.1 2.0 71.3 68.8 2.7 4.8 6.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 32 68 100 1.5 1.3 2.0 1.9 68.4 66.6 -2.3 -0.6 1.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 36 64 100 6.9 6.2 2.8 1.2 63.3 62.5 2.7 4.7 6.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 4.8 4.4 1.0 0.3 53.0 54.3 2.4 4.1 5.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 34 66 100 5.5 5.3 4.4 1.6 68.2 66.4 1.3 3.2 5.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 26 74 100 0.0 0.2 3.3 2.2 73.8 70.9 -3.1 -1.7 -0.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 33 67 100 7.6 7.3 4.1 1.6 67.1 65.5 3.2 5.3 7.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 29 71 100 7.2 7.2 3.8 2.1 71.4 69.0 2.9 4.8 6.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 35 65 100 7.3 6.8 3.1 1.4 65.0 63.8 3.0 5.0 6.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 29 71 100 7.5 7.3 3.4 1.8 69.7 67.6 3.0 5.0 6.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 40 60 100 6.9 5.9 2.8 0.8 59.3 59.1 3.0 4.9 6.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 20 80 100 8.5 9.6 5.9 3.3 80.2 77.0 3.1 5.3 7.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 30 70 100 6.4 6.0 3.3 1.9 67.3 65.4 2.4 4.2 5.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 41 59 100 7.5 6.5 2.4 0.9 60.2 60.0 3.3 5.3 7.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 30 70 100 5.3 5.7 4.8 2.1 73.4 70.8 1.5 3.2 4.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 25 75 100 5.5 5.7 3.8 2.3 73.6 71.0 1.9 3.4 4.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 29 71 100 6.4 6.9 5.3 2.3 74.2 71.6 1.8 3.9 5.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 25 75 100 3.8 3.8 2.2 2.1 72.1 69.9 -0.1 1.6 3.1 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 35 65 100 7.2 6.9 4.5 1.6 66.9 65.2 3.0 5.0 6.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 25 75 100 6.5 7.2 5.4 2.5 76.8 74.0 2.1 4.0 5.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 24 76 100 6.5 7.0 5.5 2.6 76.2 73.5 2.0 3.9 5.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 25 75 100 7.7 8.3 5.2 2.6 75.8 72.8 3.1 5.1 7.0 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 36 64 100 5.6 5.1 3.2 1.3 64.9 63.4 1.9 3.6 5.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 34 66 100 6.1 5.6 2.4 1.2 64.5 63.4 3.0 4.4 5.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 40 60 100 6.2 5.5 3.6 1.1 62.5 61.5 2.1 4.1 6.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 33 67 100 7.4 6.8 2.5 1.6 65.0 63.9 3.0 5.1 7.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 25 75 100 3.8 4.1 3.3 2.4 74.3 71.8 -0.3 1.5 3.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 36 64 100 5.7 5.8 4.8 1.9 70.2 68.1 1.6 3.5 5.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------