***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 21.01.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 01.02.2016.-07.02.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 7 93 100 9.0 11.4 7.9 4.4 87.5 82.8 2.7 5.1 7.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 8 92 100 8.9 11.3 8.1 4.7 88.1 83.7 2.9 5.2 7.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 7 93 100 10.0 12.6 8.4 4.7 88.5 83.6 3.9 6.2 8.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 7 93 100 3.1 5.4 6.1 4.6 88.9 83.9 -2.1 -0.1 1.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 7 93 100 9.1 11.3 6.6 4.5 88.0 83.1 3.7 5.8 7.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 23 77 100 7.3 8.5 4.5 3.2 80.7 76.2 2.9 4.8 6.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 8 92 100 8.5 10.8 7.8 4.5 87.3 82.9 2.4 4.8 6.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 13 87 100 1.4 3.2 5.8 4.1 87.1 81.9 -2.9 -1.2 0.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 5 95 100 10.3 12.6 7.5 4.6 88.3 83.3 4.3 6.6 8.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 9 91 100 9.6 11.8 6.7 4.4 87.7 82.6 4.2 6.2 8.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 10 90 100 9.5 11.5 6.3 4.2 86.7 81.9 4.0 6.1 8.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 14 86 100 9.2 11.0 6.0 3.9 85.9 80.9 4.1 6.1 8.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 17 83 100 8.9 10.2 5.1 3.4 82.4 78.0 3.9 5.9 7.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 8 92 100 11.0 13.9 8.1 4.9 89.4 84.7 4.9 7.3 9.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 7 93 100 8.9 11.3 6.4 4.7 89.1 84.2 3.5 5.6 7.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 13 87 100 9.3 10.9 5.6 3.8 84.7 80.0 4.2 6.2 8.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 10 90 100 8.2 10.5 8.0 4.6 88.2 83.9 3.0 5.0 6.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 9 91 100 8.1 9.9 6.6 4.4 87.6 82.5 3.6 5.4 7.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 8 92 100 9.3 12.0 8.5 4.8 88.6 84.1 2.9 5.4 7.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 14 86 100 5.0 6.7 4.5 3.9 86.0 80.6 0.5 2.3 4.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 6 94 100 9.8 12.2 8.0 4.7 88.7 83.6 4.1 6.3 8.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 8 92 100 9.5 12.3 8.3 4.8 88.9 84.7 3.4 5.8 8.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 8 92 100 9.5 12.2 8.7 4.9 89.2 84.6 3.7 5.9 8.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 7 93 100 10.8 13.4 7.8 4.7 88.6 83.7 4.6 7.0 9.2 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 6 94 100 8.0 10.1 6.6 4.6 89.1 84.3 3.0 4.9 6.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 14 86 100 8.3 9.6 4.9 3.4 83.3 78.8 3.7 5.5 7.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 6 94 100 8.9 11.1 7.2 4.4 87.7 83.1 3.1 5.3 7.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 8 92 100 9.9 12.2 6.3 4.6 88.0 83.1 4.4 6.5 8.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 11 89 100 5.8 7.7 5.8 4.2 86.9 81.8 0.9 2.8 4.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 7 93 100 8.7 11.1 8.1 4.6 87.9 83.3 2.6 5.0 7.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------