***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 21.01.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 08.02.2016.-14.02.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 19 81 100 9.5 10.9 8.0 3.5 82.1 74.9 4.2 6.4 8.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 23 77 100 8.8 10.6 8.2 3.7 82.9 75.9 3.7 5.9 7.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 20 80 100 9.9 11.3 8.3 3.6 81.7 74.4 4.4 6.7 8.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 22 78 100 3.6 5.1 6.0 3.5 81.3 74.2 -1.7 0.6 2.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 20 80 100 9.8 11.0 6.5 3.4 80.2 72.7 4.6 6.8 8.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 25 75 100 8.7 9.4 4.8 2.9 76.7 70.0 4.2 6.2 8.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 24 76 100 8.4 10.2 8.0 3.6 82.7 75.9 3.2 5.4 7.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 18 82 100 1.0 1.4 5.3 2.8 77.2 69.8 -2.9 -1.3 0.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 18 82 100 10.4 11.5 7.2 3.3 79.7 72.1 4.9 7.1 9.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 18 82 100 10.1 10.8 6.2 3.1 78.3 70.6 4.8 6.9 9.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 20 80 100 10.1 11.1 6.1 3.1 79.0 71.5 4.8 7.0 9.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 20 80 100 9.6 10.3 5.8 2.8 77.3 70.3 4.7 6.8 8.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 27 73 100 9.6 10.4 5.2 2.7 76.5 69.9 4.9 7.0 8.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 22 78 100 10.2 11.5 7.6 3.4 80.4 72.5 4.7 7.0 9.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 23 77 100 8.9 10.4 6.2 3.5 81.3 74.8 3.7 5.9 8.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 23 77 100 10.3 11.2 5.7 3.0 78.4 71.3 5.2 7.4 9.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 23 77 100 8.2 9.7 7.9 3.6 82.5 75.6 3.4 5.4 7.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 17 83 100 9.4 9.9 5.9 3.0 77.4 69.9 4.3 6.4 8.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 22 78 100 9.1 10.9 8.4 3.7 82.7 75.6 3.6 5.9 8.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 20 80 100 5.6 5.7 3.7 2.5 74.7 67.9 1.3 3.1 4.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 19 81 100 10.1 11.3 7.8 3.5 80.8 73.3 4.7 6.9 9.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 23 77 100 9.1 10.8 8.2 3.6 82.5 75.4 3.9 6.1 8.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 20 80 100 9.3 11.0 8.5 3.7 82.3 74.7 3.8 6.1 8.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 18 82 100 10.6 11.6 7.4 3.3 79.6 71.9 4.8 7.2 9.4 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 21 79 100 8.9 10.3 6.5 3.5 82.0 74.6 3.9 6.0 8.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 26 74 100 9.1 9.7 4.9 2.5 76.0 69.7 5.0 6.8 8.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 21 79 100 9.5 11.0 7.2 3.5 82.3 74.9 4.3 6.5 8.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 23 77 100 10.1 11.6 6.2 3.5 80.7 73.8 4.3 6.7 9.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 20 80 100 5.7 6.2 5.0 2.8 76.3 69.1 1.0 3.0 4.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 23 77 100 8.8 10.6 8.2 3.7 82.7 75.7 3.6 5.8 7.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------