***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 21.01.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 15.02.2016.-21.02.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 41 59 100 8.5 8.4 7.5 1.5 67.0 63.4 4.6 6.5 8.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 82 18 100 6.2 7.6 7.6 1.5 66.8 63.4 3.5 5.5 7.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 81 19 100 7.0 8.2 7.6 1.4 65.6 62.1 4.1 6.3 8.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 41 59 100 1.5 1.9 5.5 1.8 70.3 65.2 -2.4 -0.5 1.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 39 61 100 8.6 8.4 5.9 1.5 67.0 62.7 4.2 6.3 8.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 35 65 100 7.6 7.2 4.5 1.5 65.9 62.8 3.5 5.4 7.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 82 18 100 5.8 7.2 7.4 1.4 66.9 63.6 3.1 5.1 7.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 38 62 100 -0.6 -1.1 4.8 1.2 64.3 61.5 -4.1 -2.4 -0.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 37 63 100 8.8 8.2 6.5 1.3 64.5 61.0 4.3 6.4 8.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 7.1 8.0 5.5 1.2 63.6 60.6 4.3 6.3 8.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 80 20 100 7.3 8.6 5.6 1.4 65.9 62.2 4.4 6.6 8.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 38 62 100 8.3 7.9 5.4 1.3 65.3 62.3 3.9 6.0 8.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 40 60 100 8.7 8.3 5.0 1.4 65.3 62.5 4.4 6.5 8.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 7.5 8.2 6.7 1.1 62.6 59.5 4.4 6.6 8.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 35 65 100 7.9 8.2 5.8 2.0 71.9 66.9 3.6 5.6 7.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 80 20 100 7.7 9.1 5.4 1.5 66.8 63.1 4.7 6.9 9.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 81 19 100 5.7 6.9 7.3 1.4 66.4 62.8 3.2 5.1 6.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 6.7 7.3 5.1 1.1 62.2 59.7 3.8 5.8 7.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 43 57 100 7.8 7.7 7.8 1.4 66.3 62.8 3.4 5.6 7.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 35 65 100 4.6 3.8 3.1 1.1 62.5 60.8 0.5 2.4 4.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 40 60 100 8.6 8.3 7.1 1.4 65.6 61.9 4.3 6.4 8.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 80 20 100 6.3 7.5 7.5 1.3 65.7 62.0 3.5 5.6 7.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 42 58 100 8.1 7.8 7.8 1.4 65.0 61.6 3.6 5.8 7.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 7.3 8.0 6.5 1.2 62.8 59.8 4.3 6.4 8.4 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 39 61 100 7.5 7.5 5.9 1.6 68.2 63.9 3.5 5.4 7.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 33 67 100 8.5 8.0 4.8 1.4 66.4 63.8 4.1 6.1 8.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 42 58 100 8.0 8.0 6.6 1.5 67.4 63.7 3.8 5.8 7.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 39 61 100 8.4 8.8 5.8 1.9 70.7 65.6 4.1 6.2 8.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 38 62 100 4.5 3.7 4.3 1.1 62.4 60.2 0.0 2.2 4.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 82 18 100 6.0 7.4 7.7 1.5 66.8 63.5 3.3 5.4 7.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------