***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 21.01.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 25.01.2016.-21.02.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 15 85 100 7.9 9.3 6.9 2.7 85.1 80.0 3.8 5.4 6.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 12 88 100 7.5 9.2 7.2 3.0 87.2 82.6 3.5 5.1 6.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 13 87 100 8.4 10.0 7.3 2.9 86.4 81.1 4.4 6.0 7.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 13 87 100 2.0 3.3 4.9 3.0 86.2 80.8 -1.5 -0.1 1.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 19 81 100 8.0 9.3 5.4 2.7 84.0 78.6 4.4 5.9 7.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 27 73 100 6.8 7.4 3.7 2.0 78.0 72.9 3.8 5.1 6.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 12 88 100 7.2 8.7 6.9 2.8 86.0 81.5 3.0 4.6 6.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 23 77 100 -0.2 0.8 4.8 2.6 84.7 79.1 -2.7 -1.7 -0.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 17 83 100 8.6 9.8 6.3 2.7 84.4 79.1 4.8 6.3 7.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 20 80 100 8.1 9.5 5.5 2.7 84.7 79.1 4.6 6.1 7.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 24 76 100 8.2 9.5 5.3 2.5 83.1 77.8 4.7 6.2 7.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 25 75 100 7.8 9.0 5.1 2.5 83.1 77.8 4.6 6.0 7.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 28 72 100 7.8 8.6 4.5 2.1 79.1 74.1 4.7 6.1 7.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 16 84 100 9.0 11.0 7.1 3.2 88.2 82.9 4.9 6.6 8.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 15 85 100 7.6 9.0 5.4 3.0 86.1 80.9 3.8 5.3 6.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 26 74 100 8.4 9.4 4.8 2.3 81.3 76.0 5.0 6.5 7.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 9 91 100 7.0 8.5 7.0 2.9 87.6 83.1 3.2 4.7 6.1 30 Palic 37000G16 0 19 81 100 7.1 8.3 5.4 2.7 84.9 79.4 4.0 5.3 6.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 10 90 100 7.9 9.7 7.5 3.1 87.7 82.9 3.5 5.2 6.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 22 78 100 4.0 5.1 3.4 2.4 83.3 77.9 1.0 2.3 3.5 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 17 83 100 8.3 9.7 6.8 2.8 85.1 79.7 4.6 6.1 7.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 9 91 100 8.0 9.8 7.3 3.1 88.6 83.9 3.7 5.4 6.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 9 91 100 8.0 9.7 7.6 3.2 88.0 83.0 3.8 5.4 6.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 17 83 100 8.6 10.2 6.7 3.0 86.6 81.1 4.9 6.4 7.8 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 14 86 100 7.1 8.4 5.5 2.7 85.9 80.5 3.6 5.0 6.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 25 75 100 7.2 8.0 4.3 2.1 80.8 76.0 4.5 5.7 6.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 15 85 100 7.7 9.0 6.2 2.6 85.0 79.8 3.9 5.4 6.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 17 83 100 8.5 10.0 5.2 2.9 84.9 79.5 4.5 6.1 7.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 21 79 100 4.2 5.5 4.6 2.6 84.6 79.2 1.0 2.4 3.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 12 88 100 7.4 8.9 7.2 2.9 86.6 81.8 3.3 4.9 6.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------