***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 21.01.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 25.01.2016.-31.01.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 60 40 0 100 2.9 4.9 6.5 61.1 45.9 38.9 2.9 5.7 9.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 57 43 0 100 2.5 4.7 5.9 62.8 49.7 41.3 2.3 4.7 8.1 30 Becej 27400G00 58 42 0 100 3.6 5.5 6.3 57.4 43.1 37.2 3.4 7.2 12.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 59 41 0 100 4.2 5.7 6.8 49.5 40.3 35.4 4.4 7.9 12.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 62 38 0 100 4.5 6.0 7.6 53.6 38.6 34.1 4.8 8.6 13.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 62 38 0 100 4.2 5.2 6.7 50.6 37.6 33.1 4.4 7.8 12.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 54 46 0 100 2.7 5.0 6.0 64.3 50.1 41.8 2.5 5.0 8.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 59 41 0 100 6.0 7.7 7.6 53.8 39.4 34.3 6.2 10.6 16.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 61 39 0 100 3.1 4.5 7.6 56.9 41.3 36.2 3.1 6.3 10.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 59 41 0 100 4.7 6.3 8.2 57.4 40.7 35.7 4.8 8.5 13.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 55 45 0 100 3.9 5.4 7.5 57.0 42.5 36.9 3.8 7.0 11.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 60 40 0 100 2.9 4.0 6.8 53.3 39.9 34.8 3.0 5.7 9.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 58 42 0 100 3.6 4.6 7.3 54.3 39.5 35.0 3.4 6.8 11.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 61 39 0 100 4.6 6.7 6.9 52.4 41.9 35.6 4.6 9.2 15.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 70 30 0 100 1.8 1.9 4.4 31.5 32.1 27.5 2.1 4.7 9.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 59 41 0 100 3.3 4.3 7.1 53.7 39.8 34.9 3.2 6.3 10.9 30 Nis 06700G01 53 47 0 100 2.7 4.9 5.6 62.6 50.8 41.6 2.5 4.8 8.1 30 Palic 37000G16 64 36 0 100 3.8 5.2 8.1 54.1 38.7 33.7 4.1 7.5 12.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 57 43 0 100 2.8 4.8 6.0 60.6 47.7 39.9 2.6 5.3 9.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 70 30 0 100 3.1 3.9 8.2 46.2 34.2 29.4 3.8 6.7 10.6 29 Sjenica 27900G10 62 38 0 100 3.5 5.7 7.0 57.5 43.7 37.8 3.7 7.1 11.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 54 46 0 100 2.6 4.5 5.6 59.5 48.0 38.9 2.3 4.9 8.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 57 43 0 100 2.8 4.1 6.2 56.1 43.5 37.1 2.6 5.2 9.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 60 40 0 100 5.3 7.3 7.1 54.0 40.9 35.5 5.5 9.8 15.3 29 Valjevo 28500G11 58 42 0 100 4.0 5.0 7.6 55.5 38.9 34.5 3.9 7.7 13.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 64 36 0 100 3.7 3.8 6.0 43.0 31.8 28.5 4.1 7.0 10.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 59 41 0 100 3.3 5.1 7.4 61.9 43.5 37.7 3.2 6.4 11.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 62 38 0 100 2.5 3.2 5.9 43.6 37.8 32.7 2.5 5.4 9.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 67 33 0 100 5.1 6.8 8.1 51.1 37.1 32.0 5.9 10.6 16.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 58 42 0 100 2.5 4.7 6.0 62.2 48.0 40.3 2.4 5.0 8.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------