***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 21.01.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 01.02.2016.-07.02.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 61 39 0 100 1.4 3.9 9.0 99.6 63.5 49.9 1.5 2.7 4.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 57 43 0 100 1.3 4.5 10.1 126.5 72.0 55.0 1.3 2.3 3.7 30 Becej 27400G00 62 38 0 100 1.3 4.5 9.2 97.8 62.7 48.3 1.3 2.8 5.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 66 34 0 100 3.5 7.1 8.1 71.2 52.1 40.5 4.0 6.7 10.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 68 32 0 100 2.7 5.8 8.8 76.8 53.3 40.9 3.2 5.3 8.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 63 37 0 100 2.4 4.9 9.1 74.5 50.4 39.0 2.5 4.8 8.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 59 41 0 100 1.3 5.1 9.9 126.1 71.9 54.5 1.3 2.5 4.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 62 38 0 100 5.0 10.9 9.6 81.7 55.2 41.7 5.4 9.4 14.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 65 35 0 100 1.5 3.6 9.5 81.4 55.3 42.9 1.7 3.1 4.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 63 37 0 100 2.4 5.2 10.0 82.3 55.3 42.3 2.6 4.5 6.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 69 31 0 100 1.9 4.9 8.5 80.1 54.6 40.6 2.3 4.3 6.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 63 37 0 100 2.3 5.6 8.3 80.0 54.7 40.9 2.5 4.8 8.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 66 34 0 100 2.5 6.3 8.9 81.6 54.7 40.8 2.8 5.4 9.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 56 44 0 100 2.0 5.5 10.8 93.0 60.4 47.4 1.9 3.8 6.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 61 39 0 100 1.9 3.3 6.0 51.1 44.0 33.9 1.9 4.3 8.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 68 32 0 100 2.1 4.6 8.3 78.1 53.8 40.0 2.4 4.1 6.4 30 Nis 06700G01 58 42 0 100 1.4 6.3 10.1 135.4 74.2 55.6 1.3 2.7 4.7 30 Palic 37000G16 61 39 0 100 2.4 5.4 11.4 85.6 56.7 44.2 2.5 4.4 7.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 55 45 0 100 1.4 5.0 9.9 119.2 69.8 53.7 1.3 2.6 4.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 58 42 0 100 2.6 6.2 12.9 86.5 57.6 45.6 2.6 4.9 8.0 29 Sjenica 27900G10 66 34 0 100 1.7 4.0 8.8 83.6 56.4 43.7 1.9 3.3 5.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 51 49 0 100 1.7 5.7 10.2 129.9 72.9 56.0 1.5 2.8 4.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 57 43 0 100 1.3 4.2 9.6 104.0 65.0 50.2 1.2 2.5 4.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 62 38 0 100 2.4 6.1 10.5 89.0 58.6 45.7 2.5 4.7 7.6 29 Valjevo 28500G11 63 37 0 100 1.9 4.8 9.9 89.1 58.6 46.4 2.0 3.7 6.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 65 35 0 100 2.0 4.5 7.9 70.8 49.8 38.2 2.1 4.5 8.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 60 40 0 100 1.8 5.2 10.3 102.9 64.3 51.0 1.9 3.4 5.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 66 34 0 100 1.7 3.4 6.9 60.9 47.6 36.0 1.9 3.7 6.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 58 42 0 100 4.5 9.6 12.3 87.5 57.6 45.4 4.5 7.8 12.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 58 42 0 100 1.3 3.9 9.8 118.0 69.6 53.6 1.3 2.3 3.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------