***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 21.01.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 15.02.2016.-21.02.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 81 19 100 8.0 10.7 10.4 113.9 67.5 56.1 3.6 6.4 10.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 75 25 100 6.4 9.1 10.5 121.1 70.2 56.7 2.2 4.5 7.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 80 20 100 8.4 11.2 10.2 111.9 66.8 55.8 3.4 6.5 10.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 81 19 100 10.5 13.1 11.9 113.9 67.9 58.7 6.2 9.1 12.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 10.9 14.0 12.3 117.5 68.6 58.6 5.6 9.0 13.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 80 20 100 7.6 10.0 13.3 117.5 68.8 59.2 3.8 6.3 9.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 35 65 100 9.2 8.9 10.4 119.3 69.7 56.2 2.5 4.7 7.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 18.1 22.7 13.8 122.9 70.3 58.9 11.6 16.0 21.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 8.7 11.4 12.4 117.3 68.3 58.5 4.1 7.0 10.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 10.7 14.2 13.3 118.1 68.5 58.7 5.0 8.6 13.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 9.1 12.0 11.7 120.5 69.6 57.9 4.7 7.4 11.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 11.0 15.0 12.0 123.9 70.7 58.1 5.6 9.0 13.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 80 20 100 10.3 13.8 12.6 120.3 69.7 59.5 5.3 8.6 12.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 10.6 14.4 13.3 120.1 69.5 59.9 5.1 8.6 13.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 8.1 11.0 10.8 110.6 67.5 57.0 2.8 5.8 10.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 8.5 11.4 11.9 121.2 70.0 58.5 4.3 6.9 10.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 6.6 10.0 10.6 122.1 70.8 56.6 2.2 4.7 8.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 80 20 100 10.8 14.6 14.5 117.2 68.1 59.5 4.8 8.6 13.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 6.7 9.7 10.5 120.6 70.0 57.3 2.7 5.1 8.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 13.7 18.8 18.1 121.2 69.8 59.9 6.4 11.0 16.9 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 80 20 100 8.4 11.2 11.1 113.9 67.1 57.1 3.5 6.5 10.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 6.9 10.4 10.7 123.9 71.4 57.5 2.8 5.3 8.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 81 19 100 6.2 8.9 10.8 119.4 69.7 58.3 2.8 5.0 8.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 80 20 100 10.2 13.3 12.6 114.3 67.2 58.1 4.6 8.2 12.8 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 81 19 100 8.3 11.3 12.3 114.3 67.8 59.0 3.6 6.6 10.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 8.8 11.9 12.4 118.7 69.2 59.0 4.1 7.0 10.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 81 19 100 7.6 10.3 11.8 115.0 68.0 57.7 3.4 6.2 9.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 8.6 12.1 11.4 114.4 68.3 57.7 2.9 6.2 11.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 41 59 100 25.5 25.7 15.9 119.8 69.1 60.3 10.8 16.6 23.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 6.9 9.6 10.3 117.9 69.1 56.3 2.5 5.0 8.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------