***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 21.01.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 25.01.2016.-21.02.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 29.7 27.8 36.5 94.8 54.3 50.4 16.5 25.1 35.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 80 20 100 27.5 30.4 36.9 106.2 62.4 56.6 16.2 23.7 32.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 39.7 36.3 36.4 92.1 52.5 48.9 23.9 34.4 47.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 82 18 100 44.7 38.4 39.3 84.6 47.3 44.8 29.5 40.2 52.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 46.6 39.7 41.6 87.7 48.0 45.2 30.4 41.2 53.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 37.1 30.3 42.1 86.9 46.4 44.0 23.3 32.5 42.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 80 20 100 26.6 29.4 36.8 106.8 62.6 56.4 16.1 23.2 31.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 66.2 61.1 45.6 91.8 50.9 47.1 48.3 60.3 73.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 37.8 32.8 42.4 89.6 48.8 45.7 24.9 33.4 43.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 46.9 41.6 45.8 90.8 49.6 46.2 31.6 41.9 53.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 39.6 34.8 40.1 90.5 50.3 46.7 25.0 34.6 45.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 38.9 33.1 39.5 91.2 50.6 46.9 21.7 32.7 45.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 43.5 38.3 41.4 90.5 49.5 46.4 28.2 38.5 50.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 49.2 46.0 45.2 92.7 52.8 49.2 33.7 44.1 55.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 75 25 100 37.1 21.5 31.7 69.9 39.4 37.8 17.3 29.1 44.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 36.4 31.2 39.4 89.3 49.2 46.2 22.7 31.5 41.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 79 21 100 28.6 33.0 36.9 111.0 65.0 58.0 17.2 24.8 33.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 43.2 38.1 49.8 90.6 49.4 46.1 28.8 38.6 49.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 31.4 32.9 36.8 102.4 59.9 54.7 19.0 27.2 36.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 81 19 100 44.6 40.6 58.8 91.7 51.0 47.4 29.3 39.9 51.9 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 39.2 34.0 38.6 89.1 49.2 46.1 25.1 34.5 45.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 29.5 32.8 37.8 108.4 63.5 56.8 17.2 25.2 34.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 30.1 28.9 37.6 95.7 55.4 51.0 18.3 26.2 35.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 47.5 43.0 43.6 89.9 50.0 46.7 33.2 43.0 53.7 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 80 20 100 41.6 36.7 42.7 90.7 50.4 47.4 25.4 36.4 49.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 35.7 27.9 38.6 83.6 44.4 42.3 21.8 31.0 41.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 36.2 34.5 41.6 96.6 54.9 50.8 21.8 31.3 42.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 35.5 24.8 35.6 78.7 44.2 42.0 17.9 29.0 43.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 81 19 100 67.3 62.4 53.5 91.8 50.7 47.1 48.8 61.9 76.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 80 20 100 28.6 30.0 36.5 102.0 59.6 54.4 16.9 24.8 34.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------