***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 21.01.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 25.01.2021.-31.01.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 89 11 100 4.1 3.7 3.5 0.0 50.3 50.4 1.7 3.7 5.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 91 9 100 4.0 3.9 3.8 0.2 51.8 51.9 1.8 3.7 5.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 91 9 100 5.1 5.1 4.0 0.3 52.9 52.9 2.7 4.8 6.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 94 6 100 -0.4 -0.4 0.5 0.2 51.8 51.8 -2.3 -0.6 1.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 88 12 100 5.1 4.5 2.0 -0.2 47.7 47.8 2.7 4.7 6.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 81 19 100 4.7 2.9 0.0 -1.1 38.0 38.8 2.4 4.1 5.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 91 9 100 3.5 3.0 3.4 -0.2 48.0 48.3 1.3 3.2 5.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 83 17 100 -1.3 -2.6 0.5 -1.1 38.5 39.2 -3.1 -1.7 -0.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 87 13 100 5.7 5.2 3.3 0.0 49.8 49.8 3.2 5.3 7.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 86 14 100 5.2 4.1 1.5 -0.7 43.6 44.0 2.9 4.8 6.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 86 14 100 5.5 4.7 2.5 -0.3 47.3 47.5 3.0 5.0 6.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 86 14 100 5.5 4.2 1.4 -0.7 43.0 43.4 3.0 5.0 6.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 83 17 100 5.4 4.0 1.9 -0.8 42.3 42.7 3.0 4.9 6.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 90 10 100 5.7 5.8 4.0 0.5 54.0 53.8 3.1 5.3 7.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 92 8 100 4.4 5.2 3.3 1.2 60.3 59.9 2.4 4.2 5.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 85 15 100 5.9 4.6 1.4 -0.6 43.9 44.2 3.3 5.3 7.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 88 12 100 3.6 3.1 3.4 -0.1 48.9 49.2 1.5 3.2 4.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 84 16 100 3.9 2.9 1.2 -0.6 44.0 44.5 1.9 3.4 4.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 92 8 100 4.1 4.4 4.1 0.5 54.3 54.2 1.8 3.9 5.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 80 20 100 2.1 0.0 -1.1 -1.5 34.5 35.5 -0.1 1.6 3.1 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 89 11 100 5.4 5.1 3.9 0.1 50.7 50.7 3.0 5.0 6.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 90 10 100 4.3 4.4 4.0 0.4 54.0 53.9 2.1 4.0 5.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 92 8 100 4.2 4.6 4.3 0.7 56.2 55.9 2.0 3.9 5.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 87 13 100 5.5 5.2 3.5 0.1 51.3 51.3 3.1 5.1 7.0 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 90 10 100 3.9 3.4 2.4 -0.2 47.4 47.6 1.9 3.6 5.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 5.0 3.3 0.4 -1.1 36.6 37.5 3.0 4.4 5.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 89 11 100 4.5 3.6 2.8 -0.4 45.3 45.6 2.1 4.1 6.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 91 9 100 5.4 5.5 1.7 0.5 53.8 53.6 3.0 5.1 7.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 84 16 100 2.0 0.6 0.5 -0.8 41.9 42.5 -0.3 1.5 3.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 91 9 100 3.8 3.6 3.7 0.1 51.4 51.5 1.6 3.5 5.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------