***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 21.01.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 01.02.2021.-07.02.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 52 48 0 100 2.2 5.9 5.4 0.6 55.8 54.8 2.7 5.1 7.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 6.2 6.0 5.5 0.6 55.7 54.9 2.9 5.2 7.4 30 Becej 27400G00 52 48 0 100 3.5 7.1 6.0 0.8 56.7 55.6 3.9 6.2 8.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 51 49 0 100 -2.4 0.2 2.3 0.3 53.1 52.7 -2.1 -0.1 1.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 53 47 0 100 3.3 6.0 3.9 0.3 52.5 52.7 3.7 5.8 7.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 75 25 100 5.6 4.6 2.3 -0.2 47.8 49.6 2.9 4.8 6.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 52 48 0 100 2.0 5.3 5.2 0.5 54.4 53.8 2.4 4.8 6.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 53 47 0 100 -3.3 -1.3 2.9 -0.1 49.0 50.5 -2.9 -1.2 0.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 52 48 0 100 3.9 7.0 5.0 0.4 53.8 53.7 4.3 6.6 8.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 52 48 0 100 3.8 6.4 3.8 0.2 51.5 52.1 4.2 6.2 8.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 52 48 0 100 3.6 6.4 4.2 0.2 52.1 52.6 4.0 6.1 8.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 51 49 0 100 3.8 6.1 3.6 0.0 50.2 51.4 4.1 6.1 8.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 6.8 5.8 3.5 -0.1 49.5 50.7 3.9 5.9 7.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 51 49 0 100 4.5 8.4 5.7 1.0 58.4 56.5 4.9 7.3 9.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 6.4 6.2 4.0 0.6 55.5 54.2 3.5 5.6 7.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 52 48 0 100 3.9 6.2 3.4 0.0 49.9 51.1 4.2 6.2 8.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 75 25 100 5.9 5.5 5.2 0.4 53.9 53.5 3.0 5.0 6.9 30 Palic 37000G16 54 46 0 100 3.3 5.7 3.7 0.4 53.4 53.4 3.6 5.4 7.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 6.4 6.3 5.8 0.8 56.7 55.7 2.9 5.4 7.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 51 49 0 100 0.2 2.2 1.6 -0.1 49.1 50.8 0.5 2.3 4.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 52 48 0 100 3.8 6.9 5.7 0.6 55.4 54.7 4.1 6.3 8.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 51 49 0 100 3.1 6.5 5.6 0.6 55.6 54.8 3.4 5.8 8.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 6.8 6.9 6.0 0.9 57.7 56.4 3.7 5.9 8.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 52 48 0 100 4.2 7.9 5.5 0.8 56.7 55.4 4.6 7.0 9.2 29 Valjevo 28500G11 52 48 0 100 2.6 5.3 4.1 0.4 53.8 53.2 3.0 4.9 6.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 6.3 5.1 2.5 -0.4 46.3 48.5 3.7 5.5 7.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 53 47 0 100 2.6 5.7 4.8 0.4 53.8 53.3 3.1 5.3 7.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 7.3 6.9 3.1 0.4 53.2 53.0 4.4 6.5 8.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 54 46 0 100 0.5 3.1 3.1 0.3 52.9 53.2 0.9 2.8 4.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 5.9 5.7 5.5 0.7 55.9 55.0 2.6 5.0 7.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------