***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 21.01.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 08.02.2021.-14.02.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 54 46 0 100 3.7 5.6 5.1 -0.6 43.9 47.7 4.2 6.4 8.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 54 46 0 100 3.2 5.0 5.0 -0.7 43.0 47.2 3.7 5.9 7.9 30 Becej 27400G00 56 44 0 100 3.8 5.9 5.6 -0.6 44.2 47.9 4.4 6.7 8.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 57 43 0 100 -2.3 0.0 2.8 -0.5 45.2 47.5 -1.7 0.6 2.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 57 43 0 100 3.9 6.1 3.9 -0.6 44.8 47.4 4.6 6.8 8.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 62 38 0 100 3.4 5.8 2.9 -0.4 46.6 47.4 4.2 6.2 8.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 57 43 0 100 2.5 4.5 5.0 -0.7 42.9 47.0 3.2 5.4 7.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 58 42 0 100 -3.4 -1.7 3.4 -0.5 45.3 47.6 -2.9 -1.3 0.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 59 41 0 100 4.1 6.5 4.7 -0.6 44.8 47.7 4.9 7.1 9.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 58 42 0 100 4.1 6.4 4.0 -0.5 45.3 47.8 4.8 6.9 9.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 57 43 0 100 4.2 6.4 4.1 -0.5 45.5 47.9 4.8 7.0 9.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 59 41 0 100 4.0 6.3 4.0 -0.4 45.7 47.9 4.7 6.8 8.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 63 37 0 100 4.0 6.5 3.3 -0.4 46.0 47.2 4.9 7.0 8.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 60 40 0 100 3.9 6.3 4.9 -0.6 44.5 47.8 4.7 7.0 9.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 55 45 0 100 3.1 5.4 3.5 -0.4 46.2 48.7 3.7 5.9 8.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 60 40 0 100 4.5 6.8 3.5 -0.5 45.1 47.0 5.2 7.4 9.4 30 Nis 06700G01 58 42 0 100 2.8 4.5 4.9 -0.8 41.7 46.2 3.4 5.4 7.3 30 Palic 37000G16 57 43 0 100 3.7 5.9 4.0 -0.4 46.2 48.5 4.3 6.4 8.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 55 45 0 100 3.0 5.0 5.3 -0.7 43.4 47.4 3.6 5.9 8.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 56 44 0 100 0.9 2.5 1.9 -0.5 44.5 47.1 1.3 3.1 4.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 57 43 0 100 4.0 6.2 5.2 -0.6 44.6 47.8 4.7 6.9 9.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 60 40 0 100 3.1 5.0 5.1 -0.8 41.9 46.5 3.9 6.1 8.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 56 44 0 100 3.2 5.3 5.7 -0.7 44.1 47.8 3.8 6.1 8.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 58 42 0 100 4.1 6.6 4.9 -0.5 45.6 48.4 4.8 7.2 9.4 29 Valjevo 28500G11 54 46 0 100 3.5 5.3 3.7 -0.6 44.3 47.3 3.9 6.0 8.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 62 38 0 100 4.3 6.4 3.2 -0.4 45.9 47.2 5.0 6.8 8.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 57 43 0 100 3.7 5.7 4.5 -0.6 43.7 47.3 4.3 6.5 8.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 58 42 0 100 3.5 6.1 3.1 -0.5 45.3 47.7 4.3 6.7 9.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 57 43 0 100 0.4 2.6 3.3 -0.3 46.7 48.7 1.0 3.0 4.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 53 47 0 100 3.2 5.0 5.0 -0.7 43.4 47.5 3.6 5.8 7.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------