***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 21.01.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 25.01.2021.-31.01.2021. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 28 72 100 12.0 17.7 19.9 177.7 83.7 76.1 2.9 5.7 9.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 31 69 100 9.9 12.9 14.8 159.0 79.6 73.2 2.3 4.7 8.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 35 65 100 15.2 21.8 18.9 164.7 80.9 72.4 3.4 7.2 12.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 36 64 100 14.4 18.5 22.7 155.9 78.8 70.2 4.4 7.9 12.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 21 79 100 17.2 27.1 27.6 202.0 87.5 78.5 4.8 8.6 13.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 26 74 100 15.0 26.0 27.9 219.0 89.2 78.9 4.4 7.8 12.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 21 79 100 11.0 13.6 15.0 161.9 80.2 74.3 2.5 5.0 8.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 24 76 100 19.8 29.8 29.5 194.0 86.5 77.6 6.2 10.6 16.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 29 71 100 13.5 21.7 24.2 186.9 85.2 76.1 3.1 6.3 10.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 26 74 100 16.2 25.8 28.9 196.7 87.2 77.9 4.8 8.5 13.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 28 72 100 13.8 22.4 27.2 194.3 86.5 76.6 3.8 7.0 11.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 23 77 100 12.6 20.2 26.9 196.2 86.6 77.4 3.0 5.7 9.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 22 78 100 15.1 28.8 32.4 223.8 90.5 80.4 3.4 6.8 11.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 32 68 100 18.9 25.9 23.0 163.1 80.8 72.4 4.6 9.2 15.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 82 18 100 6.4 9.2 15.0 106.9 66.6 56.9 2.1 4.7 9.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 28 72 100 13.4 23.7 28.0 204.8 87.7 77.3 3.2 6.3 10.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 25 75 100 10.1 12.4 13.7 156.9 79.1 71.8 2.5 4.8 8.1 30 Palic 37000G16 0 24 76 100 15.0 24.5 29.5 198.8 87.7 78.9 4.1 7.5 12.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 35 65 100 10.6 14.1 15.3 157.0 79.2 72.4 2.6 5.3 9.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 23 77 100 13.2 20.2 34.0 191.8 86.4 77.7 3.8 6.7 10.6 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 34 66 100 14.0 20.9 21.8 174.3 82.8 74.0 3.7 7.1 11.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 37 63 100 10.2 13.3 13.7 151.0 77.8 70.6 2.3 4.9 8.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 37 63 100 10.5 14.1 16.5 155.8 79.1 71.8 2.6 5.2 9.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 35 65 100 17.5 25.7 24.1 176.1 83.2 74.5 5.5 9.8 15.3 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 19 81 100 17.6 26.8 25.6 191.1 85.9 79.5 3.9 7.7 13.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 22 78 100 13.5 22.3 30.7 214.2 88.8 80.5 4.1 7.0 10.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 18 82 100 14.7 22.0 22.4 188.6 85.6 79.2 3.2 6.4 11.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 44 56 100 10.7 13.8 20.1 146.2 75.9 65.4 2.5 5.4 9.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 25 75 100 20.7 32.7 30.3 193.1 86.7 78.0 5.9 10.6 16.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 28 72 100 11.1 14.8 16.0 164.0 80.6 73.9 2.4 5.0 8.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------