***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 21.01.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 01.02.2021.-07.02.2021. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 3.4 4.3 12.1 112.9 66.9 55.2 1.5 2.7 4.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 3.0 3.9 10.2 112.3 66.9 55.3 1.3 2.3 3.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 3.9 5.9 12.8 122.7 70.3 58.9 1.3 2.8 5.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 81 19 100 8.1 11.4 13.7 123.2 70.5 58.9 4.0 6.7 10.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 6.5 9.1 14.3 124.2 70.6 58.5 3.2 5.3 8.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 80 20 100 6.2 9.4 14.1 125.9 71.4 59.3 2.5 4.8 8.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 3.3 4.1 9.7 108.4 65.2 54.1 1.3 2.5 4.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 11.7 17.0 15.9 127.7 71.7 59.5 5.4 9.4 14.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 81 19 100 3.8 6.4 15.8 136.7 74.7 63.3 1.7 3.1 4.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 81 19 100 5.4 8.5 16.1 134.2 73.9 61.7 2.6 4.5 6.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 81 19 100 5.4 8.6 14.9 131.5 73.1 61.2 2.3 4.3 6.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 6.3 9.4 14.2 126.5 71.3 59.0 2.5 4.8 8.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 39 61 100 10.4 11.5 15.7 132.1 73.3 62.1 2.8 5.4 9.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 83 17 100 4.8 8.6 17.3 133.9 73.9 63.6 1.9 3.8 6.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 79 21 100 6.2 10.3 12.6 124.2 71.3 57.8 1.9 4.3 8.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 41 59 100 7.0 7.9 14.8 133.8 73.8 61.9 2.4 4.1 6.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 82 18 100 3.5 4.9 9.7 111.3 66.7 56.5 1.3 2.7 4.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 81 19 100 5.5 8.8 17.5 134.6 74.0 61.9 2.5 4.4 7.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 3.5 4.9 11.2 118.2 68.9 56.9 1.3 2.6 4.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 43 57 100 8.8 10.2 22.2 133.7 73.7 61.1 2.6 4.9 8.0 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 81 19 100 4.1 6.0 14.2 125.6 71.2 60.0 1.9 3.3 5.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 81 19 100 3.6 5.4 11.7 126.5 71.6 59.9 1.5 2.8 4.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 80 20 100 3.3 5.0 12.8 122.7 70.3 59.0 1.2 2.5 4.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 42 58 100 8.4 9.6 16.4 132.8 73.5 63.0 2.5 4.7 7.6 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 4.8 5.9 13.4 108.5 65.2 53.6 2.0 3.7 6.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 6.3 8.9 14.4 118.4 68.8 57.6 2.1 4.5 8.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 4.4 5.3 12.5 109.3 65.5 53.7 1.9 3.4 5.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 79 21 100 4.8 7.3 13.1 126.0 71.6 58.2 1.9 3.7 6.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 42 58 100 13.1 15.0 18.9 134.3 73.9 62.1 4.5 7.8 12.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 75 25 100 3.0 3.7 10.7 113.0 66.9 55.4 1.3 2.3 3.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------