***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 21.01.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 08.02.2021.-14.02.2021. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 7.3 11.0 13.2 123.9 71.2 58.3 2.9 5.6 9.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 7.4 11.5 11.7 123.5 71.0 55.9 2.5 5.4 9.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 10.0 15.2 12.8 121.9 70.6 57.9 3.4 7.2 13.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 11.1 15.7 13.5 116.6 68.9 55.2 4.4 8.5 14.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 12.1 15.2 12.8 108.3 66.1 53.6 4.6 9.0 15.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 9.0 10.2 11.5 101.0 63.4 49.5 4.1 7.1 10.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 6.4 9.9 11.6 128.1 72.3 55.9 2.4 4.8 8.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 16.6 19.3 12.7 104.7 64.6 52.3 8.6 13.7 20.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 10.1 12.9 13.3 107.1 65.6 54.4 3.7 7.5 13.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 13.2 15.5 13.0 102.8 63.9 52.4 5.2 10.0 16.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 10.5 13.2 12.0 108.2 66.0 53.6 3.9 7.7 13.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 9.3 11.8 11.8 109.8 66.4 53.1 3.3 6.8 11.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 10.4 13.0 12.1 106.3 65.3 52.2 4.3 8.1 13.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 81 19 100 12.8 16.3 14.3 107.8 66.0 55.4 5.9 10.4 16.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 9.3 13.5 12.9 120.1 70.2 53.9 3.3 6.8 11.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 8.6 10.9 11.7 106.8 65.5 53.0 2.9 6.2 11.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 7.7 11.3 11.2 127.7 72.1 55.2 3.3 5.9 9.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 10.8 12.5 13.6 102.5 63.6 52.0 4.5 8.2 13.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 8.8 13.2 11.9 121.1 70.4 56.3 3.0 6.4 11.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 52 48 0 100 4.2 11.5 16.0 100.1 62.8 51.1 3.8 7.5 12.9 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 80 20 100 10.3 14.3 13.1 113.3 67.8 56.8 3.7 7.7 13.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 8.1 11.3 11.6 122.2 70.5 55.0 3.5 6.3 9.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 8.2 11.8 12.4 118.3 69.5 56.7 3.0 6.0 10.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 11.7 14.8 13.6 109.9 66.5 55.0 4.8 9.0 14.6 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 10.8 16.3 14.3 119.5 69.7 58.0 3.6 7.8 14.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 75 25 100 7.1 8.5 11.8 106.7 65.4 50.2 2.7 5.1 8.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 10.1 15.2 13.7 123.1 70.8 58.0 3.9 7.7 13.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 9.7 12.7 12.0 109.6 66.7 52.4 3.3 7.0 12.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 17.4 19.3 14.1 101.3 63.0 51.4 8.1 13.7 20.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 7.5 11.8 12.2 124.5 71.4 56.6 2.7 5.6 9.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------