***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 21.01.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 15.02.2021.-21.02.2021. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 52 48 0 100 3.9 12.3 13.8 128.5 72.4 56.5 3.6 6.4 10.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 6.3 9.3 11.7 121.5 70.6 54.4 2.2 4.5 7.9 30 Becej 27400G00 54 46 0 100 3.6 12.5 12.8 121.2 70.2 54.1 3.4 6.5 10.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 54 46 0 100 6.2 13.2 13.6 114.3 68.0 54.7 6.2 9.1 12.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 56 44 0 100 5.5 13.6 13.4 113.8 67.4 53.1 5.6 9.0 13.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 7.8 9.6 13.3 113.2 67.2 56.2 3.8 6.3 9.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 6.3 9.1 11.7 120.7 70.5 54.7 2.5 4.7 7.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 18.4 21.1 14.0 110.1 66.0 53.5 11.6 16.0 21.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 55 45 0 100 4.2 11.2 14.0 115.0 67.7 52.8 4.1 7.0 10.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 51 49 0 100 5.3 13.2 14.2 109.1 65.5 52.2 5.0 8.6 13.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 51 49 0 100 4.8 10.9 12.4 108.4 65.4 52.3 4.7 7.4 11.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 75 25 100 11.3 13.4 12.3 109.5 65.9 53.7 5.6 9.0 13.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 10.6 12.5 13.0 108.8 65.6 54.3 5.3 8.6 12.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 51 49 0 100 5.4 13.7 15.3 112.9 67.4 53.6 5.1 8.6 13.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 54 46 0 100 3.2 11.0 12.8 110.9 67.7 54.9 2.8 5.8 10.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 8.6 10.2 12.4 108.9 65.7 54.2 4.3 6.9 10.3 30 Nis 06700G01 52 48 0 100 2.6 10.0 11.2 122.0 70.8 53.9 2.2 4.7 8.4 30 Palic 37000G16 53 47 0 100 5.1 13.5 14.7 107.7 65.2 52.5 4.8 8.6 13.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 6.8 9.7 11.8 120.7 70.3 54.2 2.7 5.1 8.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 51 49 0 100 6.9 17.2 18.8 111.6 66.8 54.5 6.4 11.0 16.9 29 Sjenica 27900G10 56 44 0 100 3.6 11.9 13.6 119.2 69.3 53.7 3.5 6.5 10.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 54 46 0 100 3.0 10.2 11.6 122.6 70.8 53.9 2.8 5.3 8.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 6.6 8.8 12.2 116.8 68.9 53.7 2.8 5.0 8.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 53 47 0 100 4.9 13.2 13.9 111.8 66.8 52.6 4.6 8.2 12.8 29 Valjevo 28500G11 53 47 0 100 3.9 12.3 14.7 122.4 70.4 55.8 3.6 6.6 10.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 8.9 11.2 13.2 112.9 67.2 56.8 4.1 7.0 10.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 51 49 0 100 3.8 11.5 14.3 125.8 71.6 56.5 3.4 6.2 9.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 52 48 0 100 3.5 11.6 12.8 111.3 67.3 55.0 2.9 6.2 11.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 52 48 0 100 10.9 23.3 15.8 107.3 65.1 52.8 10.8 16.6 23.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 6.8 10.1 12.2 122.4 70.8 54.8 2.5 5.0 8.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------