***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 21.01.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 25.01.2021.-21.02.2021. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 31 69 100 40.3 47.3 58.9 136.2 78.1 71.2 16.5 25.1 35.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 39 61 100 35.1 39.0 48.4 129.1 74.3 67.4 16.2 23.7 32.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 28 72 100 52.7 58.9 57.3 133.4 77.2 69.7 23.9 34.4 47.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 37 63 100 55.8 61.3 63.5 129.1 74.9 67.8 29.5 40.2 52.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 32 68 100 57.8 69.7 68.1 139.8 81.1 73.5 30.4 41.2 53.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 34 66 100 46.3 58.2 66.8 141.9 82.0 71.9 23.3 32.5 42.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 39 61 100 33.5 37.1 48.0 129.8 74.5 67.8 16.1 23.2 31.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 32 68 100 77.6 89.4 72.1 137.3 80.7 72.7 48.3 60.3 73.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 30 70 100 47.4 55.8 67.3 137.0 80.4 72.6 24.9 33.4 43.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 30 70 100 57.9 68.7 72.2 137.9 81.3 73.3 31.6 41.9 53.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 33 67 100 49.8 61.0 66.6 138.9 81.0 73.1 25.0 34.6 45.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 32 68 100 51.0 64.4 65.2 138.9 81.1 72.9 21.7 32.7 45.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 29 71 100 55.4 71.3 73.2 147.3 84.6 75.7 28.2 38.5 50.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 30 70 100 60.2 65.7 69.9 129.8 76.7 70.1 33.7 44.1 55.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 38 62 100 48.8 44.8 53.2 114.6 66.7 59.7 17.3 29.1 44.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 33 67 100 45.6 57.5 67.0 142.1 82.3 73.6 22.7 31.5 41.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 32 68 100 37.1 39.7 45.8 129.4 74.2 66.8 17.2 24.8 33.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 27 73 100 54.5 64.6 75.2 137.5 81.6 73.6 28.8 38.6 49.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 35 65 100 40.1 43.9 50.2 129.3 74.7 67.3 19.0 27.2 36.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 28 72 100 57.5 67.1 90.9 136.1 80.1 72.2 29.3 39.9 51.9 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 32 68 100 49.6 56.9 62.7 133.9 78.2 70.7 25.1 34.5 45.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 32 68 100 38.4 41.6 48.5 130.4 75.0 67.2 17.2 25.2 34.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 28 72 100 39.5 42.0 53.9 128.5 74.9 67.0 18.3 26.2 35.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 33 67 100 57.3 65.4 68.0 133.6 78.9 71.3 33.2 43.0 53.7 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 33 67 100 53.9 63.5 68.0 136.7 78.6 72.4 25.4 36.4 49.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 24 76 100 47.2 56.9 70.1 142.1 81.7 74.1 21.8 31.0 41.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 32 68 100 47.0 55.0 62.9 137.2 78.7 72.3 21.8 31.3 42.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 37 63 100 47.7 50.6 58.0 124.3 72.3 64.7 17.9 29.0 43.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 27 73 100 82.8 94.3 79.1 135.6 80.6 72.7 48.8 61.9 76.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 36 64 100 37.1 41.4 51.2 131.1 75.3 68.3 16.9 24.8 34.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------