***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 22.01.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 26.01.2015.-01.02.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 94 6 100 3.9 4.8 3.7 1.0 59.8 59.4 1.7 3.7 5.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 96 4 100 3.9 4.7 3.6 0.9 58.5 58.3 1.9 3.8 5.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 95 5 100 5.1 5.8 3.7 0.8 57.5 57.2 2.8 4.9 6.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 93 7 100 -0.5 0.3 1.4 1.1 60.7 60.3 -2.4 -0.7 0.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 95 5 100 4.9 5.4 1.9 0.6 56.1 55.8 2.8 4.7 6.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 91 9 100 4.3 4.7 1.0 0.7 57.1 56.8 2.4 4.0 5.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 95 5 100 3.6 4.5 3.6 1.0 59.8 59.5 1.4 3.4 5.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 96 4 100 -1.6 -2.0 0.5 -0.3 46.9 46.9 -3.1 -1.7 -0.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 95 5 100 5.5 6.0 2.8 0.6 55.7 55.3 3.3 5.3 7.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 95 5 100 5.1 4.9 1.4 -0.1 49.2 49.2 3.0 4.9 6.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 96 4 100 5.3 5.6 1.8 0.4 54.3 54.1 3.1 5.1 7.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 96 4 100 5.2 5.1 1.2 0.1 50.7 50.6 3.1 5.1 6.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 94 6 100 5.1 5.0 1.4 0.1 51.1 51.1 3.0 4.9 6.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 98 2 100 5.7 5.5 2.5 0.0 49.8 49.7 3.3 5.6 7.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 48 52 100 6.0 6.1 3.2 1.9 66.7 66.2 2.6 4.4 6.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 94 6 100 5.5 6.1 1.8 0.7 56.7 56.4 3.3 5.3 7.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 97 3 100 3.6 4.1 3.2 0.7 56.8 56.7 1.7 3.5 5.1 30 Palic 37000G16 0 96 4 100 3.7 3.2 0.7 -0.5 45.6 45.6 2.0 3.6 5.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 97 3 100 4.1 4.9 3.6 0.8 57.5 57.2 1.9 4.0 6.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 90 10 100 1.8 0.7 -1.2 -0.9 40.3 40.5 0.0 1.5 3.0 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 95 5 100 5.2 5.8 3.3 0.7 56.3 55.9 3.1 5.1 6.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 97 3 100 4.3 4.9 3.3 0.6 55.8 55.6 2.2 4.2 6.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 98 2 100 4.2 4.8 3.5 0.6 55.5 55.3 2.2 4.1 6.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 98 2 100 5.4 5.3 2.4 0.0 50.1 50.0 3.3 5.3 7.2 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 94 6 100 3.9 4.3 2.2 0.6 56.2 55.9 2.0 3.7 5.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 94 6 100 4.6 4.5 0.8 0.0 50.5 50.5 3.0 4.4 5.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 94 6 100 4.3 5.0 3.0 0.8 57.9 57.6 2.1 4.1 6.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 90 10 100 5.5 6.7 2.4 1.5 63.5 63.0 3.2 5.2 7.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 94 6 100 1.7 0.8 -0.1 -0.7 43.1 43.2 -0.3 1.5 3.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 94 6 100 3.9 4.8 3.7 1.0 59.7 59.4 1.7 3.7 5.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------