***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 22.01.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 16.02.2015.-22.02.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 7.7 6.9 6.2 0.0 50.3 49.4 4.9 6.9 8.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 53 47 0 100 3.4 5.9 6.2 0.0 50.1 49.3 3.8 5.9 7.8 30 Becej 27400G00 51 49 0 100 4.1 6.5 6.4 -0.1 49.4 48.9 4.4 6.6 8.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 51 49 0 100 -2.5 -0.3 4.0 -0.2 48.2 47.6 -2.2 -0.1 1.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 51 49 0 100 4.2 6.4 4.5 -0.3 47.1 46.7 4.5 6.7 8.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 55 45 0 100 3.2 5.5 3.4 -0.2 47.6 47.2 3.7 5.7 7.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 6.3 5.5 6.2 0.1 50.7 49.6 3.4 5.5 7.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 56 44 0 100 -4.4 -2.6 3.6 -0.4 45.1 45.7 -3.9 -2.2 -0.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 53 47 0 100 4.3 6.5 5.2 -0.3 46.9 46.7 4.7 6.9 9.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 56 44 0 100 4.1 6.3 4.3 -0.4 45.6 46.0 4.7 6.8 8.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 53 47 0 100 4.3 6.6 4.4 -0.3 46.7 46.4 4.8 7.0 9.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 55 45 0 100 3.7 6.0 4.2 -0.3 46.4 46.6 4.3 6.4 8.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 53 47 0 100 4.3 6.5 3.9 -0.3 47.2 47.1 4.7 6.9 8.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 52 48 0 100 4.4 6.8 5.7 -0.2 47.9 47.9 4.8 7.0 9.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 6.7 5.9 4.2 0.0 50.0 49.3 3.9 5.9 7.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 53 47 0 100 4.6 6.9 4.1 -0.3 47.0 46.8 5.0 7.3 9.4 30 Nis 06700G01 53 47 0 100 3.0 5.3 6.0 0.0 49.6 48.7 3.4 5.4 7.2 30 Palic 37000G16 53 47 0 100 3.8 5.7 4.0 -0.5 45.0 45.8 4.2 6.3 8.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 53 47 0 100 3.2 5.9 6.4 0.0 49.9 49.3 3.7 5.9 8.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 55 45 0 100 0.3 1.9 1.8 -0.6 42.8 44.5 0.8 2.8 4.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 75 25 100 7.7 6.6 5.8 -0.2 48.1 47.7 4.6 6.8 8.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 56 44 0 100 3.1 5.7 6.2 -0.1 49.2 48.6 3.7 5.8 7.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 51 49 0 100 3.6 6.1 6.5 0.0 49.5 49.0 3.9 6.2 8.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 52 48 0 100 4.3 6.6 5.5 -0.3 47.2 47.4 4.7 6.9 9.0 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 75 25 100 6.7 5.7 4.6 -0.1 49.2 48.3 3.8 5.8 7.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 53 47 0 100 4.0 6.1 3.6 -0.3 46.7 47.2 4.4 6.5 8.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 75 25 100 7.1 6.2 5.5 0.0 50.3 49.3 4.0 6.1 8.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 75 25 100 7.4 6.3 4.2 -0.2 48.4 47.9 4.3 6.5 8.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 53 47 0 100 0.0 1.9 3.1 -0.5 44.2 45.5 0.4 2.7 4.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 51 49 0 100 3.3 5.8 6.3 0.0 50.4 49.6 3.6 5.7 7.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------